The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a far-reaching warning about the impact of the energy crisis stemming from tensions in the Middle East, noting that Europe could have barely "six weeks" of aviation fuel reserves if supply disruptions persist.
The executive director of the agency, Fatih Birol, has warned in an interview with Associated Press that the situation linked to the Strait of Ormuz already constitutes “the biggest energy crisis faced until now”, in a context of high instability in global markets.
Risk of flight cancellations and pressure on prices
According to Birol, if the normal flow of oil and gas is not restored, Europe could start to register flight cancellations due to kerosene shortages, in addition to a sustained increase in the prices of gasoline, gas, and electricity.
The warning comes at a time when the Brent barrel stands around 95 dollars, reflecting the uncertainty about the evolution of the conflict and the role of the Strait of Hormuz as a key point for global energy transit.
Ormuz, the epicenter of energetic tension
The IEA underlines that the Strait of Hormuz continues to be a critical bottleneck, as a substantial part of global oil and gas transits through it. In this context, the agency has indicated that the full reopening of the maritime passage is the main variable to stabilize the markets.
Birol has also criticized the toll systems applied by Iran to certain vessels, warning that this type of measures could set a precedent in other strategic routes of world trade.
The director of the IEA has also warned that the impact of the crisis will not be uniform. The most vulnerable countries would be, first of all, several economies in Asia, Africa and Latin America, which would suffer sooner the consequences of rising energy costs.
Over time, the deterioration would also spread to Europe and the United States, affecting economic growth and fueling new inflationary pressures.
The AIE has already activated in previous months extraordinary releases of strategic reserves among its member countries to try to cushion the impact of the crisis. However, the agency insists that the evolution of the conflict in Irán and the situation in Ormuz will be decisive to avoid an energy shock of greater magnitude on a global scale.