The CEO of CaixaBank, Gonzalo Gortázar, has estimated downwards his growth forecasts for the Spanish economy in 2026 due to the possible effects of the war in Iran, going from the 2.4% initially projected to 2%, if energy prices continue to rise but the situation normalizes after a few months.
He said this at the 'Gran Encuentro Expansión Catalunya', organized this Monday by Expansión at the Recinte Modernista de Sant Pau in Barcelona, where he pointed out that these conclusions depend on the duration of the conflict and on the damage that may be inflicted on the infrastructures of the countries involved.
"As we begin to see a situation that generates a conflict that will be contained in time and will imply a certain rise in energy costs, but a normalization after a few months, we think that growth [in Spain] which was going to be around 2.4% could approach 2%", he analyzed.
Response to the Government
Gortázar believes that the impact on the Spanish economy could be negative depending on the duration of the conflict and the damage suffered by the infrastructures.
He referred to the announcement of economic measures by the Government of Spain, of 5,000 million euros, which will represent a "help to growth".
The company's research service, CaixaBank Research, estimates that a 10-dollar increase in the price of oil usually subtracts around 0.15 percentage points from the growth of the gross domestic product (GDP), while a similar increase in gas would subtract close to 0.10 points.
Spain, resistant to "shocks"
In his speech, Gortázar has emphasized the reduction of private sector debt in Spain, which has gone from 141 to 80% of GDP --while Europe stands at 103%--.
"We have resilience and capacity to face a shock, but evidently we cannot rule out scenarios that are not so positive," he warned.
Inflation
Finally, Gortázar has explained that, on similar occasions, from the economic world there were inaccuracies when determining the duration of inflationary periods, which is why he has called for acting with anticipation.
"Central banks, in the last big wave of decisions, thought that inflation was going to be transitory and it lasted quite a while and they had to react with very significant increases [in interest rates]. I think it is quite logical that now we have to react soon," he has said.