Pablo Hernández de Cos, current general director of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and former governor of the Bank of Spain, is emerging as the best-rated candidate among the main names being considered to take over from Christine Lagarde at the helm of the European Central Bank (ECB) when her term concludes on October 31, 2027, according to a survey conducted by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) among monetary policy specialists.
The study analyzes five possible successors to Lagarde based on nine parameters, including experience, technical background, leadership, and ability to garner support both in their home countries and across the European Union. The profiles evaluated are the Dutch Klaas Knot, former governor of the Bank of the Netherlands; Isabel Schnabel, German representative on the ECB's Executive Board; Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank; the French François Villeroy de Galhau, still governor of the Bank of France; and the Spanish Pablo Hernández de Cos.
According to the conclusions of the consultation, the former governor of the Bank of Spain heads the experts' ranking in four of the nine categories analyzed (training in monetary economics, reputation for capacity to generate consensus, capacity to obtain the backing of other member states, European credentials). Furthermore, he is ranked as the second best in central banking experience and knowledge of capital markets, and achieves the third best score in political capital.
The authors of the report highlight that the overall winner of the survey, Hernández de Cos, who was a member of the ECB Governing Council between 2018 and 2024, combines serenity, intellectual solidity, and a particularly relevant track record due to his role in managing the Spanish economic crisis and in a very complicated political context, as underlined by a former senior official of a multilateral development institution cited in the survey.
Behind the Spaniard, the results place the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, in a tight second place, slightly ahead of the Dutchman Knot and the Frenchman Villeroy de Galhau. In contrast, the German Schnabel, whose possible nomination would face the limit of a single term for members of the ECB Council, is relegated to the last position within the group of favorites considered.
At the same time, the report recalls that a substantial part of the discussion about who should be the next president of the ECB focuses on whether Germany would violate European Union rules if it were to simultaneously hold the presidency of the ECB and the European Commission, currently held by Ursula Von der Leyen, given that it is considered unlikely that she would leave Brussels prematurely to run for the German federal presidency next year.
In parallel, a survey of economists conducted by "Bloomberg" in January pointed to the Dutchman Klaas Knot as the main favorite in the race for the succession of Christine Lagarde at the head of the central bank of the eurozone, with the Spaniard Hernández de Cos in second position and the president of the Bundesbank, Joachim Nagel, as the third name with the most support.
For their part, another survey among economics experts conducted at the beginning of the year by the "Financial Times" placed Hernández de Cos as the preferred option for 26% of participants, ahead of the 24% who leaned towards Klaas Knot and the 14% who bet on Joachim Nagel, while Isabel Schnabel obtained the support of 7%.