The war in Iran is clearly beginning to shift to the global economic arena. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has confirmed that it will revise downwards its global growth forecasts for 2026, in a context marked by energy instability, rising prices, and a more limited capacity for reaction than in previous crises.
This was conveyed in an interview granted to Bloomberg by the managing director of the organization, Kristalina Georgieva, who this Tuesday wanted to send a direct message to governments and markets: "Prepare for the worst".
A sharp turn in economic forecasts
Until before the outbreak of the conflict, the IMF contemplated an improvement in global growth prospects. However, the impact of the war has altered that scenario immediately.
Georgieva has confirmed that the new outlook, which will be published next Monday, will reflect a significant deterioration of the world economy. The global economy, which had shown resilience after the pandemic and other recent shocks, is once again facing a large-scale disruption.
The energy factor: origin of the shock
The core of the problem lies in the interruption of energy flows from the Gulf, one of the world's main exporting regions. According to the IMF, this phenomenon constitutes a negative supply shock, that is, a reduction in the availability of key resources that pushes prices upward.
The rising cost of oil, along with derivatives such as diesel or aviation fuel, is already being passed on to the entire global economy. This inflationary pressure forces central banks to face a complex balance: to contain prices without further slowing growth.
A world more vulnerable than in previous crises
One of the most worrying elements for the IMF is that the global economy arrives at this crisis in worse structural conditions. According to Georgieva, the room for maneuver for governments is today more limited than before the pandemic.
The high level of debt accumulated after the pandemic and the lack of significant fiscal adjustments reduce the capacity to respond to a possible recession. Added to this is a more fragmented geopolitical environment, where international cooperation is more difficult and crises are increasingly frequent.
Unequal impact and growing social risk
The effect of the conflict will not be homogeneous. The countries closest to the focus of tension, energy importers, and those with less fiscal margin will be the most affected.
In addition to the energy price increase, the IMF warns of consequences in other strategic sectors, such as that of fertilizers, which could aggravate global food insecurity. Millions of people could be pushed into situations of vulnerability if the crisis prolongs.
In this context, the margin of error in decision-making is considerably reduced. Georgieva has stressed that economic policy responses must be especially careful, avoiding measures that could worsen the situation, such as export restrictions or unsustainable fiscal policies.
Some governments have already begun to apply subsidies or limits to energy prices, although the IMF warns that these measures can further strain public finances if they are not adjusted to the available fiscal margin.