The war in Iran is not played in stadiums or on the artificial ski slopes of the Gulf. But if it drags on, it could end up deciding the future of both.
While markets react with relative containment — moderate stock market declines, a rebound in bond yields, and energy tensions — the real impact is brewing in another area: that of money. Or, more precisely, in where that money stops going.
According to the analysis of Giordano Lombardo, CEO of Plenisfer Investments, the conflict can provoke a profound change in the capital flows coming from oil-rich countries, with consequences that go far beyond the price of crude oil.
Football as an investment… until it stops being one
During the last decade, the Premier League has become one of the great showcases of global capital. Clubs like Manchester City or Newcastle United have been driven by funds linked to Gulf countries, in a strategy that mixes profitability, international image, and influence.
That model, however, depends on a context of stability and abundance. If the war drags on, the logic changes. The same states that have financed millionaire signings may be forced to redirect resources towards more urgent priorities: energy infrastructure, security, and internal economic stability.
The result would not be immediate, but rather progressive: less investment, lower spending capacity, and a brake on the international expansion of these sports projects.
Skiing in the desert, a luxury under pressure
Miles of kilometers from the fronts, projects like Trojena symbolize a different ambition: that of transforming oil-dependent economies into tourist and technological powers.
The future Saudi ski resort is not just an attraction. It is part of a strategy to attract visitors, diversify income, and redefine the region's image. But these types of initiatives share a key characteristic: they require massive and sustained investments over time.
In a scenario of prolonged conflict, those investments come into question. Capital, Lombardo points out, could be diverted to sectors considered strategic, such as the construction of oil pipelines or the protection of oil and gas transport.
Luxury tourism
Skiing in the desert
In a world where geography seems to set insurmountable limits, skiing has managed to make its way even into one of the most inhospitable environments on the planet: the desert. Although the image of dunes and snow is, at first glance, contradictory, the truth is that there are a few—counted—cases where this sport has found its place in territories dominated by heat and aridity.
The most emblematic example is found in Ski Dubai. Located inside a shopping mall, this indoor slope allows skiing all year round in the middle of the desert of the United Arab Emirates. It is a completely artificial facility that maintains sub-zero temperatures in an environment where, outside, thermometers easily exceed 40 degrees. It is, to date, the clearest case of skiing in the "pure" desert.
Added to this model is the ambitious project of Trojena, promoted by Saudi Arabia as part of its futuristic development plan. The initiative includes the creation of a ski resort in the middle of the desert, with a view to hosting international competitions such as the Asian Winter Games. Although still in the development phase, it represents the most advanced attempt to replicate this type of infrastructure in extreme conditions.
Luxury tourism, thermometer of uncertainty
The impact is not limited to large projects. It also reaches high-end consumption, one of the engines of global tourism. Firms like Louis Vuitton or Rolex depend on an ecosystem where economic confidence and international mobility are fundamental.
A prolonged war introduces uncertainty, makes energy more expensive —which acts as a “global tax”— and can curb both spending and travel. And, luxury, in that context, is usually one of the first sectors to suffer.
From ‘soft power’ to security
Beyond specific sectors, the change is structural. In recent years, part of the capital from oil has been used to reinforce the global presence of these countries: investment in technology, sports, or tourism. The conflict alters that strategy.
“Capital flows are likely to be reduced […] towards a wide range of economic initiatives,” warns the expert, who points to a reallocation towards more immediate and critical areas. Money does not disappear, but it changes its function: from projecting influence to guaranteeing security.
A new balance, less flashy
The war in Iran still poses many unknowns: its duration, the extent of the damage, or its effects on global trade. But even in the most optimistic scenario, the report warns of lasting consequences.
Among them, a growing risk of persistent inflation and economic slowdown —the so-called stagflation— that would force governments and companies to be more prudent. In that environment, the great symbols of global luxury —from football clubs to ski slopes in the desert— may cease to be priorities.
They will not disappear overnight. But they could enter a new phase: less expansive, more contained and, above all, subordinate to a context where security is once again above spectacle.