The prolonged conflict in the Middle East is generating serious concerns about its effects on the global and US economy, especially through oil and natural gas prices, as well as inflation and economic growth. The disruption of key energy supplies and geopolitical uncertainty keep markets on alert, although they have shown greater resilience than expected since the start of the conflict on February 28, with moderate declines in indices such as the MSCI ACWI and a relative containment of credit spreads.
Joseph V. Amato, president and CIO of equities at Neuberger Berman, warns that if the price of oil reached levels close to 150 dollars per barrel for a period of six to twelve months, the consequences would be significant. According to the expert, this scenario would cause a notable destruction of energy demand, with an estimated impact of one percentage point on global GDP and half a percentage point on US GDP.
Furthermore, core inflation -which excludes energy and food- could increase between 0.25 and 0.50 percentage points, while general inflation, which includes the direct effect of energy, could rise by up to two percentage points, pressuring monetary policy and households' consumption capacity.
The duration of the blockade
One of the critical factors in the energy dynamic is the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil circulates, as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas, helium, refined fuels, and petrochemical raw materials.
The duration of the blockade in this region and the magnitude of the energy shortage largely determine global energy prices. Despite partial damage to some liquefied natural gas production capacities, most energy supplies remain operational, mitigating a more severe immediate impact.
The effect of the conflict on different economies is uneven. Countries with high dependence on energy imports such as China, Europe, India, and Japan face greater risks of disruption, while the United States is in a more resilient position thanks to its high degree of energy self-sufficiency.
Focusing on the long term
WTI and Brent forward prices, currently around 76 and 82 dollars for December 2026, still do not reflect a significant destruction of demand, according to Neuberger Berman, which suggests that markets expect some short-term adaptability.
Geopolitical uncertainty remains a central factor: shifts in negotiations, troop deployments, and the presence of proxy actors generate a volatile environment, where even an abrupt change in the Iranian regime could lead to more unstable outcomes than maintaining a weakened regime. However, analysts recommend investors focus on the long term, considering market downturns caused by geopolitical tension as opportunities to strengthen strategic positions. Global economic resilience and the trend towards political de-escalation point to a gradual recovery of productivity and nominal growth initiated in early 2026.
The prices
The latest report from the consultancy E3G highlights that tension in the Middle East has also kept natural gas prices high in Europe and Asia. The dependence on critical supplies places these economies in a vulnerable situation against prolonged cost increases, even if a ceasefire is reached, as it could take several months before supply levels return to normal, maintaining pressure on inflation and regional economic stability.
In parallel, Edmond de Rothschild AM warns that the combination of energy risks, inflationary pressures, and rising interest rates is intensifying the volatility of global financial markets. Central banks, including the ECB, have adopted a more restrictive approach, anticipating at least three rate hikes until the end of 2026.
Meanwhile, sectors like energy and materials have registered gains thanks to the rebound in oil, while technology and communications have suffered with higher rates and stricter regulations. This scenario evidences how geopolitics and monetary policy are selectively affecting different areas of the market, offering strategic opportunities for those who maintain a long-term investment perspective.