The regional elections in Andalusia on 17-M will not be decided in large blocks, but in tenths. That is the true angle that the polls draw: Juanma Moreno's absolute majority depends, literally, on a few thousand votes and the final distribution of seats in each province.
In 2022, the PP achieved a historic majority with 43.1% of the votes, but with an extremely narrow margin in real terms: barely 7,223 votes decided four key seats in Seville, Malaga, Cadiz and Cordoba. That is, only two tenths of the total vote turned a broad victory into an absolute majority.
That precedent is key today: current polls place the PP around 42%/43%, right in the critical zone where the electoral system can give or take away the majority by a single seat.
Andalusia and the 'leftovers': the real battle is in the last deputy
The distribution in Andalusia does not respond only to percentages, but to the effect of the D'Hondt system and provincial distribution. In each constituency, the last seat -the "cheapest" in votes- is the one that decides majorities. It is the battle for what is known in Andalusian political jargon as the "restillos"
In 2022, the PP won that last seat in several provinces by minimal margins:
- 1,060 votes in Cádiz
- 1,156 votes in Sevilla
- 1,215 votes in Córdoba
Now, the scenario repeats itself. The difference between governing alone or depending on Vox could be around 15,000 votes distributed across eight provinces. This explains why Moreno himself has focused on that threshold, also to try to mobilize his own and prevent them from taking victory for granted on May 17.
A new decisive factor: almost 370,000 young people voting for the first time
To that equation a new element is added compared to 2022: the youth vote. In these elections, 368,853 Andalusians will vote for the first time, 5.4% of the census. It is a sufficient volume to alter the distribution of seats in key provinces such as:
- Seville (more than 90,000 new voters)
- Malaga (almost 70,000)
- Cadiz (more than 58,000)
The data is structural: the absolute majority no longer depends only on the traditional vote, but on a generation without memory of the PSOE governing Andalusia and with more volatile voting patterns.
The PP dominates among older people, but the majority is at stake among those under 35. The Andalusian electorate maintains a clear structure: close to 40% of the census is over 55 years old and this segment continues to be the most stable electoral base of the PP but the balance breaks among young people where there is a higher level of abstention, more volatility, greater exposure to identity discourses, especially thanks to social networks and, of course, less loyalty to traditional parties
There lies the key: the PP has consolidated its floor, but the absolute majority depends on capturing part of that young vote that today is more fragmented.
Who will win among the youth?
Vox loses structural strength, but maintains an advantage in the most ideological youth vote. The behavior of the youth vote introduces a second derivative: While Vox has historically been strong in this segment and its identity discourse and its presence on social media have given it an advantage, now surveys point to a recent and clear wear and tear, with less capacity for growth in regional elections and a clear loss of momentum.
In fact, in the various surveys we have been learning about these days, both Vox, the PP, and the PSOE lead the youth vote depending on the poll.
The left competes fragmented and without capacity for concentration
Compared to the greater or lesser strength than in 2022, the left arrives divided again: the polls point to a PSOE that will not be able to surpass its 2022 result, but also a Por Andalucía -where both IU, Podemos, and Sumar are included- which, although it has a leader like Antonio Maíllo, with strength in Andalusia, only aspires to repeat for now the result of the previous regional elections and which is not capable of containing the strong rise of Adelante Andalucía.
This will redouble the difficulty of concentrating votes in small provinces and is decisive in the D’Hondt system: fragmentation penalizes more than the drop in percentage.