Andalusia election poll: Moreno nears absolute majority, with PSOE at historical lows and slight rises for Vox, according to Sigma Dos

The PP moves in 55-57 deputies with 42.8% of the vote, Vox stops its growth and the left maintains structural weakness

The data confirms that the absolute majority continues to depend on a minimal margin. In 2022, the PP secured the last key seats by barely a few tenths of a vote in several provinces, and this new scenario reproduces that same logic: stability in percentage, but with the final result conditioned by the provincial distribution.

The PSOE improves compared to February but remains below 2022 and does not reach 30 deputies

The María Jesús Montero is positioned as the second force with 22.9% of the vote and between 27 and 29 seats. Although it improves compared to previous polls, it remains below the 24.1% and the 30 deputies that the PSOE obtained in 2022.

The socialist bloc thus maintains a stable but insufficient position to compete for the Government. Furthermore, it carries a high pool of undecided voters (more than 13% of its electorate), which introduces uncertainty about its real mobilization capacity.

Vox halts its rise and distances itself from overtaking the PSOE

The poll confirms a relevant change in Vox's trend. The party stands at 15.6% of the vote and between 17 and 19 seats, improving its 2022 results (13.5% and 14 deputies), but falling short of expectations generated after its growth in other communities.

This slowdown distances Vox from overtaking the PSOE and reduces its capacity to condition the Andalusian Government, especially if the PP manages to consolidate the absolute majority.

The alternative left remains fragmented and without capacity for growth

In the space to the left of the PSOE, the situation barely changes compared to 2022:

• For Andalusia moves between 5 and 6 seats
• Adelante Andalucía stays around 2 deputies

Both formations present difficulties to grow due to the fragmentation and to the internal transfers of vote, especially towards the PSOE.

Comparison with 2022: same map, with slight adjustments in each block

The poll draws a scenario very similar to that of the last regional elections, with the PP achieving practically the same percentage (42.8% vs 43.1%), the PSOE failing to stop the drops despite the figure of María Jesús Montero, a Vox with moderate growth but insufficient to alter the balance and the left in structural stagnation

The main difference is in the consolidation of the PP as a dominant force and in the difficulty of the rest of the blocks to alter that balance.

Vote transfers: the PP expands base and the left accumulates undecided

The analysis of flows confirms several key trends:

• The PP retains more than 84% of its electorate
• Gains votes from Vox and also from the PSOE
• The PSOE loses part of its base towards indecision
• The alternative left presents constant internal leaks

This pattern reinforces the PP's position as the central party of the Andalusian system in this electoral cycle.

Sigma Dos for El Mundo, published on 04/13/2026