Andalusia elections poll: Moreno nears the absolute majority, Vox consolidates and Montero approaches historical lows, according to CENTRA

The key data from the new CENTRA is clear: Juanma Moreno's Popular Party stands between 54 and 57 seats, below the 58 it achieved in the regional elections of June 2022.

In percentage of vote, the PP reaches 42.8%, slightly below the 43.1% of that time. The fall is contained, but enough to mark a relevant political change: the PP would continue winning, but could stop governing alone.

The comparison with the historical series reinforces the trend. Since its peak in March 2024 (58–61 seats and up to 46.1%), the PP has been progressively losing strength. In December 2025, it was already moving between 53 and 55 seats, confirming a downward stabilization in the final stretch of the cycle.

Vox consolidates its growth and becomes decisive

Vox remains as the great rising actor within the right-wing bloc. CENTRA grants it between 17 and 20 seats and 15% of the vote, clearly improving on the 14 deputies and 13.47% it obtained in 2022.

Although it is slightly below the December 2025 figure (17.5%), the underlying trend continues to be upward if the evolution since 2024 is observed, when it barely exceeded 11%. The contrast with the CENTRA prior to the 2022 elections is significant: then the poll gave it 22 seats, well above the final result. Now, with a more mobilized electorate and one month before the election, the margin of error is smaller and reinforces the idea of real consolidation.

The PSOE fails to rebuild its space and remains below 2022

The Andalusian PSOE stands between 26 and 27 seats, below the 30 deputies it obtained in 2022. In votes, it falls to 21%, three points less than then (24.1%).

In December 2025, it marked 21.4%, practically the same current level, which indicates stagnation more than a fall. María Jesús Montero's candidacy fails to activate an electorate that remains demobilized.

The alternative left remains without capacity for growth

Por Andalucía stands at 5–6 seats and 7.8% of the vote, practically replicating its 2022 result (5 deputies and 7.7%). After the setback suffered since 2024, the space seems stabilized but without capacity for expansion.

Adelante Andalucía, for its part, slightly improves its position compared to 2022 (2 seats and 4.6%) and would now reach between 2 and 3 deputies with 6.3% of the vote. Even so, its growth does not compensate for the socialist weakness.

The left bloc remains fragmented and without the capacity to compete as a bloc against the right.

More abstention and an electorate still in movement

The barometer introduces another relevant element: abstention would rise to 43.7%, more than two points above 2022.

This data is key in electoral terms. It indicates that the result is not yet closed and that an important part of the electorate remains unmobilized.

As usually happens, between 20% and 30% of voters will decide their vote in the last week of campaign and even in the previous 48 hours.

A CENTRA more precise than in 2022: the calendar factor

Unlike the March 2022 barometer -which was prepared more than three months before the elections-, this poll is published on April 14, barely a month before the May 17 appointment with the polls. This context is key: the electorate is already immersed in the electoral process, which reduces volatility and makes the estimate potentially more accurate than that of four years ago.

In 2022, for example, CENTRA underestimated the PP (43–44 seats compared to the 58 real ones) and overestimated Vox. Now, with less time margin, the scenario is considered more adjusted to the electoral reality.