Juanma Moreno nears an absolute majority in Andalusia less than two months before the May 17 elections. According to the latest GAD3 poll, the Popular Party stands between 54 and 57 seats, very close to the 55 needed to govern alone and, at the high end of the forecast, in line with the historic result of 2022, when it obtained 58 deputies.
The key data is not just the advantage, but stability: the PP maintains practically intact its electoral floor after a complete legislature, something unusual in the current political cycle. Even in the worst-case scenario, Moreno would be just one seat short of an absolute majority.
The PSOE remains at lows and Montero fails to activate the vote
In the left bloc, the PSOE fails to recover. María Jesús Montero's candidacy moves between 29 and 30 seats, in line with the worst historical result of Andalusian socialism in 2022.
Far from recovering ground, the party remains stagnant despite the change in leadership. The poll reflects that the strategy of focusing the campaign on healthcare and public services is not managing to mobilize the electorate, nor to reverse the structural loss of support in the community.
Vox slows its growth and loses pressure capacity
The third key actor is Vox, which confirms in Andalusia the slowdown already observed in Castile and León. Santiago Abascal's formation would remain at 14 seats -the same ones it currently has- or, at most, would add one more.
This stagnation reduces its capacity to condition the government. Unlike other territories, where its growth has been decisive, in Andalusia its role remains more limited, moving away the option of a coalition government and leaving the scenario in specific agreements.
The alternative left grows, but does not change the balance
To the left of the PSOE, a relevant movement is taking place, although insufficient to alter the bloc. Adelante Andalucía would rise to 4 or 5 seats, doubling its current representation, while Por Andalucía would remain around 5 deputies. Podemos, for its part, would again be left out of the Andalusian Parliament, although it is relevant that these days we will surely see an agreement between these last two forces, which can give strength to the sum of votes.
In total, all the left would total around 40 seats, very far from the 55 needed to contend for the government and even below the result of the PP alone.
A stable scenario: clear advantage of the PP and without a bloc alternative
The map drawn by the survey is one of continuity. The PP consolidates its position after the absolute majority of 2022, Vox loses momentum and the left fails to articulate a competitive alternative. Furthermore, the poll suggests that government wear and tear -including episodes such as last autumn's health crisis- has not had a significant impact on Moreno's electoral base.
The poll leaves in the air the great unknown of the Andalusian elections: if Juanma Moreno's PP will manage to repeat the absolute majority or will fall short depending on Vox for the investiture.
GAD3 for ABC, published on 08/30/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 54-57 | 43,6 |
| PSOE | 29-30 | 23,8 |
| VOX | 14-15 | 13,6 |
| For Andalusia | 5 | 6,7 |
| Forward Andalusia | 4-5 | 6,1 |