Andalusia election poll: Moreno reaches 17M with 51% approval and doubles Montero, according to Sociométrica

This growth is not only quantitative, but also qualitative. Moreno does not limit himself to consolidating his electoral base, but rather expands his support towards voters from other political spaces. The poll reflects that 30.6% of PSOE voters approve of his management, as well as 35.5% of those from Adelante Andalucía and a resounding 72.1% among Vox voters. 

Comparison with 2022: clear rise without government wear and tear

The key data of the barometer is the absence of wear. Unlike other autonomous governments in this electoral cycle, the Andalusian Executive not only does not lose support, but significantly increases it.

In the May 2022 elections, Moreno achieved a historic absolute majority with 43% of the votes and 58 seats. At that time, his approval rating stood at 45.5%. Now, almost four years later and after a full legislature, his approval exceeds 51%, which indicates a consolidation of leadership beyond the initial electoral momentum.

Montero starts with disadvantage and without coattail effect

It is in the question about the preference to lead the Junta de Andalucía where problems for the Andalusian socialists are glimpsed. María Jesús Montero, PSOE candidate, obtains 17.6% support as preferred to preside over the Junta. She is below the result achieved by Juan Espadas in 2022 (18.2%), which evidences difficulties in activating the socialist vote in this initial phase of the campaign.

The distance with Moreno is notable: more than 30 points difference in direct preference (the current president of the Junta de Andalucía has 48.6%), which anticipates a campaign in which the PSOE must focus on mobilizing its electorate more than on disputing leadership. The difference in 2022 was 23 points and a curious fact for Vox, Macarena Olona surpassed Espadas in preference to lead the Junta (18.5 compared to 18.2% for the former mayor of Seville).

Furthermore, the poll reflects that the PSOE does not manage to capitalize on the wear and tear of the central Government nor transfer its political agenda to the autonomous sphere, in a context where the vote seems more conditioned by the perception of management than by ideological polarization.

Moreno doubles the national leaders in valuation

One of the most relevant elements of the study is the comparison with national leaders. Juanma Moreno not only leads in Andalusia, but his approval level practically doubles that of the country's main political figures.

In the latest national poll, Pedro Sánchez stood at around 26%, while Yolanda Díaz and Santiago Abascal were around 25%, and Alberto Núñez Feijóo barely exceeded 24%. 

Facing these data, Moreno's 51.6% marks a significant distance that reinforces his own profile, removed from the state block dynamic.

Vox, alternative left and key of the electoral scenario

The Andalusian electoral context will also be conditioned by the behavior of the other forces. The poll suggests that Vox maintains a solid base, although with questions about its growth capacity after recent internal tensions and its role in other territories.

On the left, the space to the left of the PSOE remains fragmented. The lack of a cohesive alternative between Sumar, Podemos, and Adelante Andalucía limits the options to articulate an alternative majority, which indirectly reinforces the position of the current president.

Sociométrica for El Español, published on 03/29/2026