If regional elections were held today in Andalusia, the political map would barely change in its essentials, but it would harden in its dynamics: consolidation of the PP's power, structural weakness of the PSOE, and a Vox that grows without breaking its ceiling of expectations.
The poll places Juanma Moreno's Popular Party as the clear winner with 42.8% of the votes and 56 seats, two less than in 2022 (58), but still above the absolute majority set at 55 deputies. That is to say, Moreno would maintain his ability to govern alone intact.
The PP consolidates its hegemony and widens distances
The key data is not only the absolute majority, but the distance with the PSOE, which is almost 20 points in Andalusia as a whole. In provinces like Málaga or Almería, the PP's advantage even borders on 25–28 points, which confirms a structural change in the Andalusian electorate after decades of socialist dominance.
Furthermore, the PP achieves something strategic: to absorb votes from different blocs. According to the survey, it captures 10.4% of former PSOE voters and 18.6% from Vox, consolidating its profile as a transversal option. This movement explains why, despite the natural wear and tear of government, Moreno not only resists, but retains the absolute majority.
The PSOE falls to lows and fails to mobilize
On the part of the PSOE, María Jesús Montero fails to stop the fall and leaves the socialists in their worst historical scenario in Andalusia. The PSOE would obtain 23.1% of the vote and 28 seats, two less than in 2022 (30), consolidating a very weakened electoral base.
The problem is not only the loss of votes, but its composition, as, according to Sociométrica, there is a leak towards the PP among moderate voters, a limited transfer from the alternative left, and it continues to maintain a high pool of undecided voters (around 8%). Although Montero manages to capture part of the vote from Por Andalucía (15.3%) and Adelante Andalucía (10%), that flow does not compensate for the outflow towards the center-right bloc.
Vox grows, but remains far from the decisive leap
Vox improves results, but does not meet expectations, in line with what was seen in Castilla y León. It would reach 16.1% of the vote and 18 seats, above 2022 but below other recent territories such as Castilla y León, Aragón or Extremadura. In addition, a new factor of wear and tear appears: the irruption of Se Acabó la Fiesta, the space promoted by Alvise Pérez, which would capture around 2% of the vote. It does not obtain representation, but it does fragment the protest vote and limits Vox's growth.
The alternative left resists, but does not change the board
To the left of the PSOE, the scenario remains fragmented. Por Andalucía would be around 5.9% and 4 seats, while Adelante Andalucía would reach 6% and between 2 and 3 deputies. Podemos, for its part, would again be left out of the Andalusian Parliament, consolidating a trend already seen in other communities, although awaiting a pact candidacy on the left. The sum of the entire left would remain around 35% of the vote, very far from the right-wing bloc, which maintains a clearly dominant position.
Vote transfer: the center decides the election
The electoral map is explained, above all, by vote movements. The PP not only retains its electorate, but also absorbs voters from both the PSOE and Vox. Specifically, it captures 10.4% of former socialist voters and up to 18.6% from Vox. This double flow confirms Moreno's strategy: expanding through the center without polarizing, which allows him to grow without activating rejection.
Youth and abstention: favorable ground to the right
Among new voters, Vox leads with 32%, followed by the PP (22.3%) and Adelante Andalucía (21.2%). The PSOE is left out of this generational competition. Among those who abstained in 2022, the distribution also favors the right: 13.6% would now opt for the PP and 13.5% for Vox, compared to only 8% who would choose the PSOE.
Sociometrica for El Español, published on 03/30/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 56 | 42,8 |
| PSOE | 28 | 23,1 |
| VOX | 18 | 16,1 |
| For Andalusia | 4 | 5,9 |
| Forward Andalusia | 3 | 6 |