In this way, the PP remains above 42% and could govern alone despite Vox's advance. The key data from the poll is Juanma Moreno's stability: the PP maintains its dominant position after a full legislature, something unusual in the current autonomous political cycle, and manages to retain the absolute majority despite the strong advance of Santiago Abascal's party in Andalusia.
The PSOE falls to its worst historic result with Montero
The main impact of the survey is on the socialist bloc. The PSOE would remain at 21.2% of the vote and between 26 and 27 seats, which would represent the worst result in its history in Andalusia.
The candidacy of María Jesús Montero fails to reverse the trend started in 2018. In the last elections of 2022 the party already hit rock bottom with 30 deputies. Now, the setback widens, consolidating a structural loss of support in the community.
Vox soars and could reach up to 21 seats
Facing the stagnation of the PSOE, Vox is the protagonist of the largest growth in the poll. The party would rise to 17.7% of the vote and could reach between 18 and 21 seats, clearly improving on the 14 deputies obtained in 2022.
This advance reinforces its position as the third force and also leaves it very close to Montero's PSOE, although without real capacity to alter the government if the PP maintains an absolute majority.
The alternative left reconfigures itself without altering the balance
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the scenario remains fragmented. Adelante Andalucía would grow to 6.1% and would obtain between 3 and 4 seats, doubling its current presence. On the contrary, Por Andalucía (IU-Sumar) falls back to 5.9% and could remain around 4 deputies, losing weight in the progressive bloc. Podemos, for its part, still fails to achieve representation, awaiting possible pacts.
Overall, the alternative left fails to build a solid alternative and still lacks the capacity to compete with the right-wing bloc.
High indecision: one in four voters still has not decided
The poll introduces a relevant element of uncertainty. In direct voting intention, 25.1% of respondents state they still don't know who they will vote for, a figure that could condition the final evolution of the campaign. The PP leads this metric with 26.5%, followed by the PSOE (15.2%) and Vox (10.2%), while abstention (7.3%) and blank votes (3.4%) maintain significant weight.
Moreno, only leader who approves and with clear advantage
In leader ratings, Juanma Moreno is the only one who gets a pass, with an average score of 5.53 and a level of knowledge of 93.3%. Far behind is María Jesús Montero, with a 3.26, even below other candidates like Antonio Maíllo (3.53). Manuel Gavira, from Vox, is known by 57% of respondents, which reflects a lower level of establishment.
A clear scenario: PP's advantage and without a bloc alternative
The map drawn by the survey is one of continuity and an unprecedented scenario for now in Spain: the PP with an absolute majority and Vox soaring compared to its previous results, with both factors occurring simultaneously, while the PSOE fails to regain ground, while the alternative left remains fragmented.
Target Point for El Debate, published on 03/30/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 55-56 | 42,5 |
| PSOE | 26-27 | 24,1 |
| VOX | 19-21 | 17,7 |
| For Andalusia | 4 | 5,9 |
| Forward Andalusia | 3-4 | 6,1 |