According to the direct voting intention data known in the study 'Attitudes and demands of Andalusians after the floods' by the CIS, published today, the PP would lead with 32.1% in the Andalusian elections on May 17, but greatly reducing the distance with a PSOE that loses strength compared to 2022. In voting intention, however, the collapse is considerable for Juanma Moreno's party if we compare this data with the 2022 election result: almost ten points less in the previous regional elections, which would automáticammente mean the loss of the absolute majority.
The comparison with the 2022 regional elections is key to understanding the change of cycle: the PP falls from 43.1% in 2022 to the current 32.1% and continues to lead but with less margin.
For its part, according to Tezanos, María Jesús Montero's PSOE would be heading towards a historic debacle, dropping from the 24.1% achieved by Juan Espadas to 22%, without structural recovery capacity.
Collapse of Vox and rise of the left
Another surprising fact in the regional election race is the collapse of Santiago Abascal's party in Andalusia. They suffer the biggest adjustment and go from 13.5% to 8.8%, losing more than four points.
In parallel, the Andalusian left emerges strongly, especially Teresa Rodríguez's former party, Adelante Andalucía, which now with José Ignacio García achieves a very significant rise from 4.58% of its result in 2022 to 7.7% now. Likewise, Por Andalucía, with Antonio Maíllo as candidate, would drop from 7.70% to 5.8%
The autonomous map thus shows a dominant right but less concentrated in the PP than in 2022, and a divided left without the capacity to dispute the leadership.
Leadership: Moreno dominates with clarity against a weakened Montero
Regarding political leadership, it is clear that Moreno Bonilla not only leads in approval but also in preference to be president:
The Andalusian candidates, in grades
- Moreno is the best valued with a 5.87.
- María Jesús Montero stays at 3.93.
Likewise, 40.9% prefer Moreno as president compared to 17.5% who opt for Montero. In addition, the Andalusian president leads in key attributes:
- More prepared (45.7%)
- More dialoguing (47%)
- More reliable (42.3%)
The PSOE fails to transfer its national leadership to the autonomous level. Regarding the management duo between the Junta and the Government of Spain, the Andalusian Government scores a positive 40.2% and Pedro Sánchez's a negative 49.6%.
Healthcare, housing and management: the vote is decided in an Andalusian key
The CIS leaves a key strategic piece of data: 65% of Andalusians will vote thinking about problems specific to the community, not about national politics. The priorities are very clear:
- Public health: 40.7% (main personal problem)
- Housing: 17.2%
- Infrastructures: 16.4%
At a general level:
Healthcare (38%), housing (22.8%), and unemployment (21.7%) lead the concerns.
Floods and weather: limited but relevant impact
The study also measures the impact of recent storms:
- 26.6% has been directly affected
- 66.3% links floods to climate change
- 60.8% believes that Andalusia is not prepared
Regarding the management of floods, the difference between San Telmo and Moncloa are smaller:
- Board: 59% positive rating
- Central Government: 33.6% positive
A system in transition: less hegemony, more fragmentation
The survey as a whole reflects a structural change, the PP continues to lead, but far from its ceiling of 202, the PSOE is unable to maintain its 2022 results and Vox loses ground in regional elections, although it holds up in general elections, with the alternative left fragmenting the progressive bloc.
Generals in Andalusia: the PSOE cuts distance and Vox recovers
The electoral omportment is more positive for the socialists and Vox in the panorama of general elections, with the differences much less accentuated:
- PP: 27.7%
- PSOE: 25.4%
- Vox: 13.9%
Here a relevant adjustment is observed: the PSOE improves its relative position and approaches the PP, Vox recovers votes compared to regional elections, almost five points more and the PP loses part of its advantage, evidencing less loyalty in national terms.