Andalusia election survey: Moreno conquers the youth vote and maintains the absolute majority, Montero falls to lows and Vox grows, according to NC Report

The key data is not just the victory, but the resistance: the PP maintains intact its capacity to govern alone in a context where other territories have forced pacts with Vox. The setback is minimal according to this poll -one seat- and would suggest that there would have been hardly any wear and tear throughout the legislature towards Moreno's leadership in Andalusia.

The PSOE worsens its worst historical result with Montero

The great impact of the poll occurs in the socialist bloc. The PSOE would remain at 28 seats, two less than in 2022, which would worsen its worst historical result in Andalusia.

The candidacy of María Jesús Montero fails to activate the electorate nor stop the leakage of votes. Ehe party maintains a loyalty of 82%, the lowest among the main forces, and continues losing support both towards abstention and towards the PP.

Vox grows, but remains far from conditioning the government

Vox improves its results and stands at around 14.9% of the vote, which would allow it to rise from 14 to 16 seats. However, its growth is far from the levels seen in other communities and does not alter the political balance. Andalusia would also be the first territory that, if the results of this poll are achieved, would achieve a double phenomenon on the right: for the PP to achieve an absolute majority and, at the same time, for growth to occur among those of Santiago Abascal.

The strength of the PP in Andalusia acts as a brake on its expansion, preventing it from reaching the 18-20% range that it has indeed touched or come close to in specific moments in other territories.

The alternative left resists divided and without capacity to compete

In the space to the left of the PSOE, the scenario remains fragmented. Por Andalucía would grow to 6 seats, while Adelante Andalucía would remain around 2 deputies, although with a slight rise in percentage.Podemos, for its part, would be left out of Parliament, with 0.9% of the vote, in a context where its space continues to be absorbed by other formations, although a pact at this level is discounted.

Vote transfer: Moreno captures voters from PSOE and Vox

One of the most relevant elements of the survey is Juanma Moreno's ability to attract voters from other blocs. The PP captures 6.8% of former Vox voters and 5.3% of socialist voters, consolidating a transversal profile.

In addition, the party presents a loyalty of 88.5%, the highest in the system, which explains its electoral stability even after years of government.

Young people turn towards the PP and abstention continues to dominate

The PP becomes the main force among young people, with 12.9% support among those under 30, breaking the trend of previous cycles where Vox led that segment. Even so, the dominant figure continues to be abstention, which reaches 52.3% in this age group, showing a wide space of unmobilized vote.

NC Report for La Razón, published on 03/30/2026