The average of polls places the Popular Party around 42% of the votes and about 54–56 seats, which would allow it to remain the leading force in Andalusia, although in a tighter position than in 2022.
Juanma Moreno would lose some support compared to the 58 deputies achieved in June of that year, but would remain in a position to govern, with the absolute majority within reach.
The key is in the margin: a variation of barely one or two seats could force the PP to depend on Vox to stay in power.
The PSOE still fails to recover and remains below 2022
The Andalusian PSOE would stand at around 23% of the votes and about 26–27 seats, which represents a new setback compared to the 2022 elections, when it obtained 30 deputies.
Despite the change in leadership and the presence of María Jesús Montero, the socialists fail to activate their electorate nor recover their historical position in Andalusia.
The data confirms an underlying trend: the PSOE remains trapped at low levels without the capacity to compete for the first position.
Vox grows and consolidates itself as a key piece
Vox remains as the party with the greatest growth within the right-wing bloc. The average grants it around 15% of the votes and close to 18–20 seats.
The formation clearly improves its 2022 result and approaches levels that would allow it to have a decisive role in governability if the PP does not reach an absolute majority.
Its growth, sustained in recent months, reinforces its position as a potential partner and increases pressure on the PP.
The alternative left remains fragmented
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the scenario barely changes with respect to 2022.
Por Andalucía would move around 7–8% and about 5 seats, while Adelante Andalucía could slightly improve to reach 2–3 deputies.
Overall, the alternative left fails to grow enough to compensate for the socialist weakness, which keeps the progressive bloc fragmented.
An open scenario: everything depends on a few seats
With 109 seats at stake in the Andalusian Parliament, the absolute majority stands at 55 deputies. The average of polls leaves the PP right at that threshold, which makes the election one of the most open in recent years. A small fluctuation in the campaign can completely change the scenario.
Few options of pact and structural advantage of the right
If the PP does not reach an absolute majority, the only viable alternative would be an agreement with Vox. On the contrary, the sum of PSOE, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía would be very far from being able to form a government, which reinforces the structural advantage of the right-wing bloc.
Elections more precise than in 2022: the calendar factor
Unlike the March 2022 polls -conducted more than three months before the elections-, this average is constructed in mid-April, barely one month before the election date.
This implies a more mobilized electorate and lower volatility, which makes the current photograph more reliable than in the previous cycle.