The Popular Party would again win clearly in the province of Cadiz, reaching between 7 and 8 seats and 42.2% of the vote, according to a Social Data survey.
The figure even improves the 2022 result, when it obtained 39.4% and eight deputies, consolidating its position as a hegemonic force in the province in the final stretch towards the May 17 elections.
Vox grows strongly and gets closer to the PSOE
One of the most relevant movements is the advance of Vox, which would rise to 15.2% of the vote and could achieve between 2 and 3 seats.
The formation almost doubles its 2022 result (8.4%) and approaches a PSOE that remains as the second force, but clearly weakened.
The PSOE falls and loses margin as alternative
The Socialist Party would remain in second position in Cádiz, but with a clear decline compared to the last regional elections.
The poll grants it 17.4% of the votes and between 2 and 3 deputies, below 20.2% and the three seats it achieved in 2022.
The fall reflects a loss of strength in one of Andalusia's key territories, just before the political earthquake caused by the 'revolt' of the PSOE of Cádiz against its Andalusian general secretary, María Jesús Montero, over the order and composition of the lists. The survey collects data from March 9 to 20, so that possible effect is not yet counted in the data.
100x100 United Bursts in amid a political earthquake in Cádiz
The big novelty of the survey is the entry onto the scene of 100x100 Unidos, the party promoted by the mayor of La Línea, Juan Franco.
The formation reaches 4.6% of voting intention and is on the verge of getting its first seat in the Andalusian Parliament.
Furthermore, the poll points to a transversal electoral base, capturing votes from PP, Vox, and PSOE, and positions itself as a second option for part of the electorate.
The alternative left retreats and loses weight
In the space to the left of the PSOE, the data reflect a significant drop, although the data collection predates the unification of Podemos, Sumar, and IU in Por Andalucía. The progressive bloc appears fragmented and unable to compete with the right in the province.
Adelante Andalucía would drop to 10.9% and would be left with 1 or 2 seats, while Por Andalucía would fall to 5.3%, with risk of being left without representation.
A seat can change everything in Andalusia
The possible seat of 100x100 Unidos acquires special relevance in the autonomous context. With the PP moving around the absolute majority in Andalusia, the entry of a provincial party could alter the final balance and become decisive for governability.
The poll confirms that Cádiz becomes one of the most open territories in these elections. The dominance of the PP, the growth of Vox, the weakness of the PSOE and the irruption of a local actor in the midst of political controversy place the province in the focus of the campaign. 'Cádiz-Herzegovina', as some of the socialist leaders call it, never disappoints and it will be necessary to look at the positive or negative impact of the change of lists on the final result of the Andalusia elections on May 17.