The demographic machinery is already starting up in Andalusia. The Sociological Research Center (CIS) and the public Foundation Center for Andalusian Studies (Centra), attached to the Ministry of Health, Presidency and Emergencies of the Junta de Andalucía, are already working on the preparation of pre-election surveys for the regional elections that will be held in one month, on May 17.
This is evident from two agreements adopted last Thursday by the Junta Electoral Central (JEC), following the communications sent by both bodies regarding the formal start of their respective studies.
The CIS and Centra launch their polls
Specifically, the CIS has communicated the start of the “Andalusian Pre-electoral Study. Regional Elections 2026”, information that the JEC has agreed to transfer to the Andalusian Electoral Board for the immediate knowledge of the representatives of the political entities participating in the elections to the Andalusian Parliament.
The idea is that the parties that will run in the elections can request the polling organization for the results of the survey, in accordance with the provisions of Instruction 1/2024 of the Central Electoral Board on the conduct of polls by organizations dependent on public administrations during electoral periods.
Furthermore, the JEC has agreed to request the CIS to send the draft questionnaire, without prejudice to the definitive text being sent later.
Likewise, the Center for Andalusian Studies has also communicated the start of the opinion study “Pre-electoral survey of the Andalusian Regional Elections 2026”, already sending the draft questionnaire to the Central Electoral Board.
The 2022 Precedent
Facing the previous Andalusian regional elections of June 19, 2022, the CIS published a pre-election survey on the eve of the official start of the campaign, on June 2, which predicted a victory for PP-A. The triumph finally occurred, although it was broader than anticipated by the organization, which did not foresee the absolute majority achieved by the popular party.
The CIS study then attributed to Juanma Moreno's PP a range of between 47 and 49 seats, far from the 58 deputies it finally obtained.
The Centra Foundation also produced a pre-election study, the results of which were published on May 30 of that year. It also predicted a victory for PP-A with between 47 and 49 deputies, while the estimate for PSOE-A, between 31 and 32 seats, was closer to the real result of the socialists, who achieved 30 representatives.
Canal Sur also enters the electoral radar
On the other hand, the Central Electoral Board has also responded to a query from Radio Televisión de Andalucía (RTVA) regarding the conducting of opinion polls during electoral periods.
The JEC recalls that any body dependent on a public administration —state, regional, or local— that decides to conduct a survey with questions about voting intention, assessment of parties, or political leaders must communicate it beforehand.
In this way, the electoral body confirms to Canal Sur that, with the elections to the Parliament of Andalusia called for next May 17, any electoral poll conducted by the public channel, directly or through external contracting, will be subject to current regulations.