Elections in Andalusia: Moreno would achieve an absolute majority, the PSOE would rise compared to 2022 and Vox collapses, according to the CIS

The new CIS for the Andalusian elections shows an important change compared to that of 2022, but also repeats some structural patterns that should be read carefully. In estimated vote, the PP goes from 35.6% that the CIS gave it before the last regional elections to the current 43.6%. It is a jump of more than 8 points that reflects that it now recognizes the strength of Juanma Moreno's bloc, something that in 2022 it clearly underestimated.

The key: the comparison with the same CIS of 2022

In seats, however, the first key appears: will the CIS be conservative with the PP again? In 2022, it placed it between 47 and 49 deputies, and it ended up achieving 58. Now it places it in a very wide range of 51 to 59, with 55 as the most likely figure. That is to say, this time it does open the door to an absolute majority, but it still leaves an enormous margin that shows caution.

The PSOE, on the other hand, maintains a clearly downward position compared to 2022, something endorsed by the CIS. In 2022 the CIS gave it between 32 and 36 seats (it ended up with 30), while now it places it between 27 and 34, with 31 as the most likely figure. That is, it acknowledges the fall, but continues to place it in a relatively high range if compared to the average of current polls, which place it closer to 27-29 deputies.

Where there is a clear turn is in Vox. In 2022 the CIS inflated it to 17-21 seats, when it ended with 14. Now it does the opposite: it lowers it to a range of 8 to 17 seats, with 13 as the most likely figure. This reflects a clear change in criteria: from overestimating it to introducing a downward correction, aligning more with the slowdown indicated by other polls.

The alternative left also shows an interesting reading. 

In 2022, the CIS granted up to 10 seats to Por Andalucía, which ended up with 5. Now it adjusts that estimate much more and places it at 4-5 deputies, while Adelante Andalucía clearly rises to a range of 5-7 seats. Here there does seem to be a methodological correction after the previous error.

But the most important data is not only in the matches, but in the context of the vote. The current CIS significantly reduces the pool of undecided voters compared to 2022 (from 20% to around 10%), which indicates that the electorate is arriving more defined at these elections than four years ago. This usually favors the one who leads clearly, in this case the PP.

Taken together, the comparison leaves a clear conclusion: the 2026 CIS recognizes the PP's advantage much better than in 2022, corrects excesses in Vox and the left, but still leaves ample room that shows uncertainty. The difference now is that, unlike four years ago, it does explicitly consider the possibility of an absolute majority.

The data confirms the trend of recent weeks, but places the popular party in the most favorable scenario possible less than a month before the May 17 elections. These are the party-by-party headlines left by this CIS:

Absolute majority of the PP

In estimated vote, the PP goes from 35.6% that the CIS gave it before the last regional elections to the current 43.6%. It is a jump of more than 8 points that reflects that now it does recognize the strength of Juanma Moreno's bloc, something that in 2022 it clearly undervalued.

Historic lows for the PSOE

The PSOE improves compared to other polls and reaches 25.8% of the vote and 31 seats. It is a result superior to what some recent surveys gave it and superior to that of 2022, but insufficient to dispute victory. The distance with the PP remains very wide, more than 17 points, which keeps the socialists far from a real government alternative.

Vox plummets and loses weight on the board

The most striking data from the CIS is in Vox. The party falls to 10.3% of the vote and 13 seats, even below its 2022 result. This setback breaks with the forecasts of other polls that placed Vox in growth and clearly reduces its capacity to influence governability.

The alternative left moves, but does not change the bloc

In the space to the left of the PSOE, the CIS introduces some relevant changes. Adelante Andalucía would rise to 8.5% and 6 seats, while Por Andalucía would remain at 6.9% and 4 deputies. The bloc grows slightly, but still does not alter the general balance.

This is how the 2026 Andalusian pre-election CIS looks