These are the keys to the Andalusian board 40 days from the polls, according to the CIS:
- PP Dominance: Juanma Moreno starts with 32.1% of voting intention, almost doubling the loyalty of his voters compared to his rivals.
- Socialist Resistance: María Jesús Montero maintains second place (22%) and curbs the threat of a right-wing sorpasso.
- Crisis in Vox: Manuel Gavira's party falls to fourth or fifth position in older age groups, even surpassed by the alternative left.
- The Personal Factor: Moreno is the only candidate who passes (scores above 5) and sweeps in attributes such as sincerity (40%) and reliability (42%).
The Andalusian pre-campaign starts with a clear drawing where the figure of Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla acts as the great electoral magnet of the community.
According to the latest CIS survey, conducted after the severe floods in March, the Popular Party not only leads voting intention comfortably, but has managed to "vampirize" a good part of Vox's electorate.
Almost 28% of those who supported Santiago Abascal's party in 2022, with Macarena Olona as candidate, now declare that they will switch to the popular ranks, attracted by the image of management and moderation projected by the current president of the Junta.
The punishment to Vox and the struggle on the left
The x-ray that the poll casts is especially unsettling for Vox. Far from fighting for second place, the party plummets as the age of the respondents advances; from the age of 45, the formation is fourth or even fifth force, seeing itself surpassed by Adelante Andalucía in key provinces like Cádiz and Sevilla.
For its part, the alternative left is living its own battle: Adelante Andalucía (7.7%) would manage to impose itself for now over the Por Andalucía coalition (5.8%), despite the recent integration of
Healthcare: San Telmo's Achilles' heel
Not everything is a bed of roses for the PP. If something can condition the "referendum" that the PSOE proposes for May 17, it is healthcare management.
Up to 38% of Andalusians place healthcare as their main concern, a fact that María Jesús Montero tries to capitalize on to mobilize her base. Despite Moreno being perceived as the most prepared leader to govern (45.7%), the discontent over waiting lists and the functioning of the public system is the only cloud in a survey that, otherwise, places the Populars in a privileged starting position to revalidate the San Telmo Palace