Finally, it will be May 17. About 6.7 million Andalusians are called to the polls in regional elections which, on paper, have a clear favorite: Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla. However, in politics few certainties survive the passing of weeks, and the great unknown remains intact: if the current president will arrive at the appointment with enough momentum to retain his absolute majority, set at 55 of the 109 seats in the Andalusian Parliament.
The leader of the Popular Party has played with the timing, deliberately fueling speculation about the election date. For weeks, bets pointed to late May, early June, or even a calendar conditioned by the announced visit of the Pope to Andalusian lands. But no. The decision has already been made, and it was not by chance.
"The calendar also votes," slips a source close to the party. And in Andalusia, few things weigh as much as holidays. El Rocío, Corpus, the fairs -with Seville at the head- could become dangerous distractions. Even more so when Moreno Bonilla himself has warned that "the biggest threat to the absolute majority is abstention and overconfidence". Better, therefore, to clear the ground.
The floor of the PSOE
The move, however, has not left anyone indifferent. In the PSOE, the reaction has been immediate. Its candidate, María Jesús Montero, maintains that the early election responds to the “fear” of the Andalusian president in the face of a supposed socialist rebound. A rebound that, for now, does not appear in the polls. Quite the opposite: the surveys place Montero even below Juan Espadas' already discreet result in 2022, when the PSOE fell below 900,000 votes and was left with 30 seats. Now, forecasts range between 24 and 27.
It would be, if confirmed, the lowest floor for the socialists in a community that for decades was their most solid bastion. A change of cycle that began precisely in 2022, when the popular party achieved a historic absolute majority.
In political circles, furthermore, these elections are read in a national key. Not only for what is at stake in Andalusia, but for what it can say about the clash between two heavyweight figures: Montero herself, number two of the Government, and Moreno Bonilla, closely linked to Alberto Núñez Feijóo. Two moderate styles, two leaderships aligned with their respective directions… and the same test at the polls.
This Tuesday, the first vice president and socialist candidate affirmed that the choice of "the date is not casual" and the opted for May 17 "so that there is no campaign among so many holidays."
The Super Sunday, deactivated
The chosen date has also had another consequence: deactivating the so-called 'Super Sunday', that hypothesis that some —among them the Castilian-Manchegan president Emiliano García-Page— saw as an opportunity to boost the Andalusian PSOE with simultaneous general elections. But time has not accompanied. The Organic Law 5/1985 of the General Electoral Regime set impossible deadlines to meet at this point.
Meanwhile, in Vox, the date of the call has been a surprise. Without an official candidate and with Holy Week in full pre-campaign, Santiago Abascal's party is racing against time. Everything points to Manuel Gavira as the headliner, although other names, such as that of María Poncel, circulate insistently in political gossip circles.
The polls are favorable to them, but the speed of the advance could take its toll on a party still in full internal reorganization and forced, moreover, to decide its role in various regional governments of the PP. Too many open fronts in too little time.
The unknown of the left
And if the right-wing board presents unknowns, the alternative left-wing one is not far behind. Rather the opposite: it appears fragmented. Antonio Maíllo leads Por Andalucía, where Izquierda Unida, Sumar and other forces converge. In parallel, José Ignacio García heads Adelante Andalucía, with its own and markedly Andalusian discourse.
For its part, Podemos, with Irene Montero leading its strategy, has confirmed that it will run in the elections, although without yet clarifying whether it will do so in coalition or alone.
Some voices maintain that, unlike other communities, the left could resist better in Andalusia. “It is a land of the left,” they assure. But even those who defend that thesis recognize that, as of today, it does not seem enough to build a real government alternative.
A local speech
With this panorama, Moreno Bonilla already outlines his strategy: focus the discourse on the local, avoid national noise and dodge direct confrontation with Vox, a dynamic that, according to experts, ends up benefiting both the PSOE and Abascal's own formation.
Weeks remain ahead, decisions to make and many pieces still unplaced. Because, although the date is already marked in red on the calendar, the game -the real one- has just begun.