Vox's problem is not the PP. Vox's problem is Vox. This is how a consulted political source summarizes it, in a reflection that anticipates the trend that surveys are beginning to pick up, always with the caution required by any demoscopic projection.
This Monday, the newspaper El Mundo published its latest poll, prepared by Sigma Dos. According to its data, the Popular Party and its candidate, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, would have the absolute majority guaranteed, at least in the current snapshot.
Neither the screening crisis nor the Adamuz railway accident, among other recent episodes, seem to be taking a toll on the management of the Andalusian Executive. A management that, according to the study, receives support even from PSOE and Vox voters, with a transfer of support that would shore up that absolute majority, at levels very similar to those recorded in the 2022 elections.
For its part, the Socialist Party, with the former first vice-president of the Government, María Jesús Montero, at the helm, slightly improves its expectations compared to the previous poll on February 28, coinciding with Andalusia Day. Even so, it remains far from the historical electoral weight of Andalusian socialism. Montero does not reach the floor of 30 seats that Juan Espadas achieved, according to Sigma Dos data, remaining below that threshold in the current projection.
A sorpasso that moves away?
The survey commissioned by Unidad Editorial also does not confirm the overtaking that other studies indicated, in which the possibility was raised that Vox would challenge the PSOE for second position in the Andalusian Parliament. That hypothesis loses strength.
Political sources consulted by Demócrata point out that Vox moves away from that trend due to the accumulated wear and tear in the negotiations for the formation of governments in Extremadura, Aragon and Castile and Leon. Added to this is the internal situation of the party, marked by departures, resignations, disagreements and requests for an extraordinary congress, with more presence in the headlines than the political activity of the formation itself.
According to the same sources, in this context the so-called 'Hungary effect' is added. More than 70% of Hungarian voters, including many young people, have recently rejected the policies of Viktor Orbán, with which Santiago Abascal identifies, along with other European leaders of the same political space. It is a line marked by ultraconservatism and nationalism, with noted affinities towards Russia, which has generated criticism for the weakening of institutional checks and balances.
In an Andalusian key, a former Vox leader points to the candidate's lack of appeal, Manuel Gavira. According to this source, his profile is not competitive against Juanma Moreno, and warns that Vox's electoral stability could be at risk if the current trend is not reversed. Along the same lines, he points out the scarcity of proposals at the provincial level, with the exception of the candidate for Córdoba, Paula Badanelli, although he considers this asset insufficient to stop the loss of support.
The challenges of Montero
In the case of the PSOE, María Jesús Montero faces the electoral appointment with several open fronts. On April 20, she is summoned to the Senate to appear before the investigation commission on the State Society of Industrial Participations (SEPI), in relation to the bailouts of airlines Plus Ultra and Air Europa during her time as Minister of Finance.
To this are added other elements of the national political context, such as the Ábalos case in the Supreme Court, the indictment of the president's wife or, the Civil Guard report which indicates that the Adamuz track showed damage the day before the accident without alerts being activated. Furthermore, Montero will have to take a stand in the campaign on issues such as the singular taxation for Catalonia and the reform of the autonomous financing system, which has generated widespread rejection in the Fiscal and Financial Policy Conference.
The socialist candidate is the second minister of Pedro Sánchez's Government to leave the Executive to make the leap to territorial politics, after the case of Pilar Alegría in Aragon. She does so at a complex moment for the PSOE and with an underlying unknown: its ability to capitalize on the weakening of other left-wing forces, some of which, like Podemos, have been left without representation in recent electoral processes.
To the left of the PSOE
In this context, the Sigma Dos survey also reflects movements within the space of the Andalusian left. Antonio Maíllo's coalition registers a leakage of support: 13.9% of its voters would now opt for the PSOE and close to 10% for Adelante Andalucía. In turn, the socialists would capture 10.8% of José Ignacio García's electorate, while Por Andalucía would attract another 10.2% of those voters.
In parallel, the leaders' approval rating follows the same pattern as electoral expectations. Juanma Moreno leads the ranking with a 4.9 out of ten, on the verge of passing and with an advantage over the rest. They are followed by Antonio Maíllo and José Ignacio García, both with a 3.7. The Vox candidate, Manuel Gavira, obtains a 3, while María Jesús Montero closes the list with a 2.8.