The Andalusian regional elections scheduled for May 2026 are shaping up as one of the most open political contests of recent years in the community. With several candidates already confirmed and some unknowns still unresolved, the electoral scenario combines continuity in the right-wing bloc with fragmentation on the left and internal tensions in key formations.
The current president of the Junta de Andalucía, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, will run as a candidate for the Popular Party with the aim of revalidating his mandate on May 17. Moreno has consolidated himself as a politician of substance, of progressive growth rather than abrupt irruptions. After two legislatures at the head of the Andalusian Government, his trajectory has been marked by a moderate profile strategy and a gradual expansion of his electoral base, which has allowed him to strengthen his position election after election.
In this new appointment with the polls, it starts as favorite according to most polls, but not exempt from unknowns. On the one hand, there is the possibility that Vox experiences growth that complicates parliamentary arithmetic and again forces agreements in the right-wing bloc. On the other hand, the doubt also persists as to what extent the polls accurately reflect the final behavior of the electorate. However, political sources close to Vox, affirm to Demócrata, that although this formation may have very good results, it is also very possible that the response at the polls does not meet expectations as happened in Castilla y León.
The unknown of Montero
In the socialist bloc, the candidacy falls on María Jesús Montero, current vice president of the central Government, who makes the leap to regional politics in an attempt to revitalize the Andalusian PSOE. However, her landing is not accompanied, for now, by favorable expectations in the polls. The demoscopic studies published in recent months agree in pointing out that the PSOE remains far from the PP in voting intention, and that Montero's leadership does not manage, for the moment, to reverse the party's downward trend in Andalusia. Analysts point to several factors: the accumulated wear and tear after years out of regional power, the fragmentation of the left-wing space, and the difficulty of transferring her national political weight to the Andalusian sphere.
To the left of the PSOE, the political space appears divided. On the one hand, Antonio Maíllo leads the coalition Por Andalucía, which brings together Izquierda Unida, Sumar and other progressive forces. On the other hand, José Ignacio García heads Adelante Andalucía, with its own Andalusian discourse. This fragmentation complicates the options of articulating a solid alternative to the conservative bloc.
Bambú already has a candidate
In Vox's case, the situation introduces one of the main unknowns of the contest. Unlike other formations, the party has not yet officially confirmed its candidate for the presidency of the Junta, which leaves a period of internal readjustment up in the air. After Macarena Olona's departure from Andalusian politics, the party's leadership in the community was assumed by Manuel Gavira, who has since served as the main organic and institutional reference.
However, this handover has not been without tensions. Various reports point to the existence of an internal struggle within Vox in Andalusia, with differences over the electoral strategy and the profile of the most suitable candidate. The lack of a clear designation in the midst of the pre-campaign fuels doubts about whether the party will choose to consolidate Gavira's leadership or seek an alternative name with greater electoral projection.
In this context, and although Manuel Gavira has not been officially proclaimed as a candidate, different sources indicate that he has the approval of the national leadership -known internally as “Bambú”, and that, according to political analysts, behind this support would be the figure of Monserrat Luis, who would have played a key role in positioning Gavira as the most probable option to lead the Andalusian list. This unofficial support reinforces the idea of continuity after Olona's stage, although the lack of public confirmation maintains a certain degree of uncertainty about Vox's final strategy, where another strong name, that of María Ponce, Gavira's current advisor, senator by autonomous designation from Ciudadanos, is strongly rumored. Ponce would have tried to integrate into the Popular Party in Andalusia, although she has finally ended up in Vox, raising in both formations certain misgivings due to her political wavering.
To this internal Andalusian crisis is added also a tension at national level. Vox faces growing questions about the party's management and the leadership of Santiago Abascal, with increasingly widespread information about Abascal's personal income, the people around him and the internal functioning of the party. These circumstances have resulted in requests for an extraordinary congress to redefine the party's structure and strategy.
The advantage of the PP and the expectations of Vox
Beyond the major parties, other candidacies, including provincial formations and the possible solo candidacy of Podemos, add complexity to an already fragmented electoral map.
Overall, the outlook points to a contest in which the PP starts with an advantage, but with variables still open: the possible evolution of Vox, marked by internal crises both regional and national; the reliability of the polls; and the left's ability to recompose itself. A scenario in which the solidity accumulated by Moreno Bonilla will be put to the test against an increasingly unpredictable electorate and a right-wing bloc that could reorganize itself in the midst of the electoral process.