The Foundation for Applied Economic Studies (Fedea) has warned that the intense cycle of incorporating new photovoltaic generation in Spain will not be sustainable over time, in a scenario of continued fall in prices perceived by these plants and an increase in grid feed-ins. In this context, the entity anticipates a notable contraction in the entry of new solar capacity from 2027 onwards.
In the second edition of the Observatory for monitoring the indicators of the National Integrated Energy and Climate Plan (PNIEC) by 2030, prepared by Professor Diego Rodríguez, the 'think tank' notes that the deployment of new renewable power for electricity generation has continued to rely almost exclusively on photovoltaic technology, "which almost multiplied by ten in 2025 the entry of wind power" and set a historic record.
However, the author of the report maintains that this pace of growth for photovoltaics will be difficult to sustain in the coming years, in an environment dominated by the reduction of prices captured by solar generation, the increase in curtailments, and "the growing uncertainty about the profitability of new projects".
In this line, it remarks that the average price captured in 2025 is already at the profitability limit of numerous photovoltaic developments and, therefore, anticipates "a sharp drop in entry from 2027".
Regarding wind power generation, the document emphasizes that it remains "very far" from the objectives set in the PNIEC and considers it "key" to streamline the administrative processing of projects, both new farms and, very notably, repowering initiatives of existing facilities.
Regarding energy storage, the analysis detects a significant delay. Fedea foresees some momentum in the deployment of batteries starting in 2026, although it estimates that this "arrives late to meet the planned objectives".
In relation to renewable gases, the report concludes that the development of green hydrogen is "far below initial expectations".
Despite the fact that there is a significant volume of projects that have obtained public aid, the absence of firm demand and regulatory uncertainty are postponing investment decisions, so the author anticipates that in 2030 we will be very far from the electrolysis capacity target set for that year.
Instead, the trajectory of biogas and biomethane is considered somewhat more positive, although in both cases their contribution to the national energy system remains very limited.
The report especially highlights the increase in electricity demand in 2025, which it interprets as a necessary condition to support the expansion of renewable energies. However, it emphasizes that, with the available data, no relevant progress in electrification is observed in industry, in the services sector, and, particularly, in transport.
Less than 3 million electric cars in 2030
In this last area, although in 2025 there was a significant increase in registrations of electrified vehicles, the author considers that the most plausible scenario is that the vehicle fleet will remain below three million units in 2030, very far from the 5.5 million contemplated in the PNIEC.
Likewise, the Fedea study points out that it is becoming increasingly complicated to achieve the objective committed to in the PNIEC of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 32% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels, after the sharp drop recorded in 2023 has not been maintained in subsequent years.
Transport, a major obstacle to climate goals
From a sectoral perspective, the 'think tank' notes that electricity generation and industry continue to contribute positively to the reduction of emissions, although the contribution of the electricity sector in 2025 was reversed by the change in the generation mix after the blackout.
However, it warns that other areas show a clearly negative dynamic, especially transport, which continues to be the main brake on meeting the PNIEC targets, with a growing path of its emissions since 2021 and a decisive role in the deviation of total emissions with respect to the projected trajectory.