Europe is starting to think about what for years was taboo. According to The Times, political, diplomatic, and military officials consider it possible that the United States will reduce its commitment to NATO or even act independently of its allies if the conflict in Iran continues to escalate.
The fear is not just a progressive withdrawal, but something deeper: that Washington might negotiate directly with Russia "over" Europe. Sources cited in the analysis warn that what just five or six years ago seemed impossible is now openly discussed in strategic circles.
Iran's war changes the balance: resources, priorities and alliances
The shift has a clear trigger: the war in Iran. The United States is already diverting key resources that until now were destined for Ukraine, which could weaken its capacity against Russia.
In parallel, Europe recognizes its structural dependence. More than 30% of the material Ukraine needs is produced exclusively in the United States, which limits any real attempt at strategic autonomy.
Added to this is an uncomfortable factor: while Europe increases its spending, Russia continues generating massive income from energy, driven by global tension. The economic board also plays.
"Europe must prepare to fight alone”: the new consensus that emerges
The message that is starting to take hold is clear: Europe must prepare itself for a scenario in which it has to defend itself without the United States.
A British parliamentary report already warns of the need to reduce dependence in critical areas such as intelligence, weaponry, or nuclear deterrence. The transatlantic relationship remains key, but it is no longer taken for granted.
In parallel, alternatives are being considered such as strengthening European alliances or structures like the Joint Expeditionary Force, given the possibility that NATO loses operational cohesion.
Trump strains NATO: from “America First” to the payment model
Donald Trump's statements and movements have intensified these doubts. According to the cited information, his entourage is studying formulas that would change the functioning of NATO, including models in which countries that do not meet certain spending levels would lose decision-making capacity.
Also being considered is a possible withdrawal of US troops from Europe, especially from Germany, a measure that would have a direct impact on the continent's security architecture.
The real fear: a silent rupture of the Western order
The scenario that worries is not an abrupt collapse, but something more subtle: a progressive disconnection between the United States and Europe.
While Washington prioritizes its agenda -Iran, China, internal politics-, Europe fears being left in an intermediate position: dependent, but without guarantees.
The conclusion that is beginning to take hold in Brussels, London and other capitals is uncomfortable but clear: the Atlantic link is still alive, but it is no longer unquestionable. And for the first time in decades, Europe is beginning to prepare for the worst