The evolution of the war in the Middle East has once again placed immigration and the possible movements of refugees at the center of the European debate.
Experts consulted by EFE warn that an escalation of the conflict involving a prolonged destabilization of Iran could trigger a migratory crisis of great magnitude towards the European Union.
Iran has about 92 million inhabitants, a population much larger than Syria's when its civil war broke out in 2011, which ended up causing one of the biggest migratory crises in recent history in Europe.
The migratory impact could surpass that of the Syrian refugee crisis
As Warner ten Kate, migration specialist at the Clingendael Institute of the Netherlands, explains to EFE, if the war intensifies and the region destabilizes, the migratory impact could be very high.
The expert warns that Europe could face population movements even larger than those recorded during the Syrian refugee crisis of 2015.
Nevertheless, it points out that in a first phase it is probable that the displacements are mainly internal within Iran.
“While the attacks remain at a limited level, it is more likely that the population will move within the country to other provinces or with relatives,” he explained.
More than 100,000 people have already abandoned their homes in Iran
According to provisional data from the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), at least 100,000 people have abandoned their homes in Iran, especially in the Tehran area, after the bombings by the United States and Israel.
In addition, tens of thousands of other people have been displaced in different hotbeds of tension in the Middle East.
In Lebanon, between 58,000 and 65,000 people have had to abandon their homes after the resumption of clashes between Israel and Hezbollah.
Also in Pakistan thousands of people have left their homes in areas affected by violence.
Brussels follows the situation but does not yet detect an increase in arrivals
The European Commission has assured that, for the moment, no significant increase in migratory movements towards the European Union related to the crisis has been detected.
However, Brussels has recognized that it is following the evolution of the conflict with attention.
“We know that when conflicts arise in certain regions, migratory flows tend to be generated,” explained the chief spokesperson of the European Commission, Paula Pinho.
Europe strengthens its mechanisms in the face of possible migratory flows
A community spokesperson recalled that the European response to possible migratory pressures is articulated through the new European Pact on Migration and Asylum, currently in the implementation phase.
This system includes reinforced mechanisms for coordination and preparation among member states in the face of possible migratory crises.
The more controlled borders could delay the impact
Unlike the Syrian crisis of a decade ago, many countries of the region have reinforced their border controls.
Turkey has built a wall on its border and other countries close to Iran maintain restrictions at their border crossings.
This could limit or delay movements towards Europe, although it could also generate humanitarian risks if the departure of civilian population is blocked.
A migratory crisis “unprecedented” if the conflict escalates
The European Union Agency for Asylum has warned that even a partial destabilization of Iran could provoke refugee movements of an unprecedented magnitude.
If barely 10% of the Iranian population were displaced, the number of refugees would be comparable to some of the largest migratory flows recorded in recent decades.
For now, experts consider this scenario highly uncertain, although they warn that the risk exists if the conflict is prolonged.