The United States and Iran have agreed to a two-week ceasefire with immediate effect after accepting a proposal mediated by Pakistan, in a move that curbs, at least temporarily, a military escalation that threatened to spill over the Middle East.
The agreement has been closed at the last moment, barely an hour and a half before the ultimatum set by Donald Trump expired, who had set the limit at 8:00 PM in Washington (2:00 AM in Spain). The pressure was maximum: the White House had gone so far as to propose massive attacks against Iranian infrastructure if its demands were not met.
The key to the agreement: Ormuz and the final negotiation
The central element of the pact is the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most sensitive strategic points in the world for global energy transport. Iran commits to allowing safe passage during these two weeks, while both parties open a direct negotiation to attempt a definitive agreement.
In exchange, the United States suspends the bombings and any offensive operation during that same period. Trump himself has presented the move as a balance between mutual concessions, assuring that Washington has already achieved its military objectives and that now a diplomatic phase opens.
Pakistan emerges as key player amidst crisis
Pakistan's role has been decisive. The prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, has confirmed that the ceasefire has global scope within the conflict and that it will apply to all linked scenarios, including Lebanon, where tension with Israel and Hezbollah remains active.
Furthermore, Islamabad positions itself as the venue for the negotiations, with a planned meeting between American and Iranian delegations to advance a possible structural agreement.
A ceasefire fragile and full of uncertainty
Despite the announcement, the Iranian Government itself has made it clear that this ceasefire does not mean the end of the war. Tehran conditions any definitive agreement on the fulfillment of its own strategic conditions, which anticipates complex negotiations.
The tension on the ground also does not disappear. In parallel to the announcement, military movements and missile launches have been registered in the region, a reflection of a still extremely volatile scenario.
A last-minute twist after weeks of escalation
This is already the fifth ultimatum that Trump has launched in recent weeks and the fourth that he ends up postponing. The dynamic has been clear: maximum pressure, military threat, and final opening to negotiation at the last moment.
The conflict, which began in late February, has been escalating with episodes such as the downing of aircraft, rescue operations in Iranian territory, and cross-attacks in different parts of the region.
The difference now is the point at which this ceasefire occurs: with the real risk of a large-scale intervention and with the international community on maximum alert.
Oil and the Strait of Hormuz: the variable that changes everything
Beyond the military front, the true focus of the agreement is on the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil transits. The temporary reopening guaranteed by Iran during these two weeks immediately reduces the risk to global supply and acts as a brake on a possible energy crisis.
The market had been anticipating for days a scenario of blockade or partial interruption of transit, which would have extremely strained crude oil prices. The ceasefire now introduces a window of stability, although limited and conditioned on the outcome of the negotiations.
The price of Brent: pressure, volatility and market reaction
The price of Brent crude, a benchmark in Europe, had been driven by the military escalation and uncertainty over the Middle East. Every threat over Hormuz automatically translates into tension in energy markets, and this episode has been no exception.
With the announcement of the ceasefire, the market discounts a short-term relief, but maintains high volatility. The key will be whether these two weeks translate into a solid agreement or into a new rupture that reactivates the risk of an energy shock.
Risk of energy crisis: Europe, in the spotlight
Europe continues to be one of the major vulnerable actors in this scenario. Energy dependence and the international context mean that any alteration in the crude oil supply has a direct impact on prices, inflation, and economic activity.
A prolonged closure of Hormuz or a military escalation would have shot up the cost of energy in a matter of days. The current agreement avoids that immediate scenario, but does not eliminate the structural risk: the energy crisis remains latent and linked to the outcome of these negotiations.