Hungary holds crucial legislative elections this Sunday for the future of the country and for all of Europe. At 9:00 AM, participation has reached a 16.89%, a notable increase compared to the 10.31% recorded at the same time in the 2022 elections, which reflects greater interest in this electoral event. This increase in participation could have significant implications for the results, given the political context of tension and polarization in the country.
More than 8 million Hungarians are called to elect the 199 deputies of Parliament in elections that could put an end to the 16-year dominance of ultranationalist Viktor Orbán and his party, Fidesz, known for its conservative stances and its closeness with figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. In the final stretch of the electoral campaign, Orbán's main rival is Péter Magyar, candidate of the conservative Tisza party, who, although leading in most polls, does not yet have victory assured.
A scenario of polarization
The 10,243 polling stations of Hungary opened at 6:00 hours and will close at 19:00 hours, with the expectation that the most advanced results will be known from 22:00 hours. Voters will elect the 199 members of Parliament, of which 106 are chosen in single-member constituencies, while the remaining 93 are elected proportionally from the national party lists.
Regarding the political situation, the country is going through a highly polarized scenario. Orbán has maintained a majority of more than two-thirds in Parliament since 2010, but the latest polls show a growing advantage for Tisza. Some polls even give Magyar's party up to 23 points advantage over Fidesz, although the average of recent weeks places that difference in a range of 8 to 10 points.
Disparity in the polls
Hungary's electoral system favors the ruling party, Fidesz, which could maintain a majority of seats in Parliament with only 45% of the votes, while Tisza could need more than 55% to secure a stable majority. Although the advantage of Magyar is clear in the large cities, the conservative candidate's challenge will be to penetrate strongly into rural Hungary, where the vote is more favorable to Orbán.
The electoral competition also shows a division between the major ideological blocs. While the parties of the left face the possibility of disappearing from the political spectrum in Hungary, the far-right Our Homeland party seems to be left out of Parliament, given that conservative voters, both moderate and populist, are concentrated in Fidesz and Tisza.