To understand what is happening in the economy, one must look at a map. At the southern end of the Persian Gulf, between the coast of Iran and that of Oman, there is a passage about 33 kilometers wide at its narrowest point: the Strait of Hormuz. Through there circulates, every day, approximately one fifth of the world's oil supply and a similar proportion of global liquefied natural gas shipments.
When traffic through the strait stops, oil prices could rise even further if traffic remains practically halted for a prolonged period.
Iran has fired upon some ships in the strait, and the attacks could cause maritime operators and insurers to decide to avoid the area, which would practically halt traffic or skyrocket transport costs. It already happened: the Danish shipping company Maersk suspended all its crossings through the strait from the first day of the conflict.
The energy intelligence firm Kpler reported that oil tanker traffic through the strait had fallen 90% compared to the previous week.
The markets have already responded
The numbers are eloquent. The barrel of West Texas Intermediate rose 7% to 79 dollars, its highest level in more than a year. The barrel of North Sea Brent advanced to 85 dollars. Since the Friday before the start of the conflict, Brent has accumulated a rise of more than 16%.
Stock markets fell in a cascade. Asian stocks plummeted, with a record sell-off in Seoul: South Korea's Kospi retreated 12%, Japan's Nikkei closed down 3.6%, and Taiwan's TSEX 50 fell 4.1%.
Gold and the dollar acted as a refuge. The dollar index rose 0.95%, erasing its year-to-date losses and reaching its highest level in five weeks.
US Treasury bonds reflected expectations of more inflation: the 10-year bond climbed to 4.13% from 3.97% prior to the start of the war, which reflects a greater expectation of inflation and could force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates elevated for longer.
The IMF warns: too soon to measure the damage
The expanding conflict in the Middle East could have "a very big impact on the global economy across a range of metrics", such as inflation and economic growth, according to Dan Katz, deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Before the United States and Israel attacked Iran, the IMF expected the global economy to grow a healthy 3.3% this year.
The organization has not yet changed its official forecast, arguing that it is "too soon" to assess the damage, but its own spokespeople are already talking about a "very big" impact.
According to analysts, a scenario in which oil trades around 80 dollars per barrel and the conflict is relatively brief would have a limited impact on the global economy. However, a scenario in which oil exceeds 100 dollars would be "qualitatively different", with much greater impacts on the world economy.
Wells Fargo puts it in direct terms: "If oil prices climb to 100 dollars a barrel and stay there, it could be too much for the global economy to bear," warned strategist Scott Wren.
The impact in Spain: two tenths of GDP and inflation above 3%
Spain does not import Iranian oil directly and only a small fraction of its supply transits through Hormuz. But that does not protect it: the price that Spanish consumers pay is the international price.
The conflict in the Middle East could slow the growth of the Spanish economy by two tenths of a percentage point and raise inflation above 3% before this summer, according to Funcas' analysis. The almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused an immediate increase in energy prices, with fuel already registering a rise of 10 cents per liter in just one week and electricity becoming 13% more expensive compared to the previous month.
Funcas estimates that the sum of all impact channels -consumption, exports, tourism, and investment- could subtract about two tenths of a percentage point of growth from GDP in 2026, provided that the conflict is limited to three months and the damage to the region's energy infrastructure is not severe.
The comparison that provides more context is offered by Goldman Sachs: if oil prices remain at current levels for several months, consumer price inflation in the United States could rise from 2.4% in January to 3% by the end of the year. In Spain, the trajectory would be similar or even more aggressive.
What the conflict is already costing to pensions
The impact of inflation has a direct consequence for public coffers that is rarely mentioned in market analyses. The increase in inflation implies that Social Security will spend at least 7,000 million euros more on pensions in 2026, due to automatic revaluation.
The rising cost of energy and fertilizers could be passed on to the prices of food and other products, aggravating the economic impact.
Persian Gulf, fertilizers and the shopping basket: the hidden channel
There is an effect that early analyses tend to underestimate: the impact on fertilizers and food. Gulf countries produce 30% of fertilizers globally and also make a significant contribution to the steel trade. From rice exports stuck in Indian ports to spikes in the price of critical fertilizers for food production, there are already signs of tension along the arteries of global trade.
The impact on food does not come suddenly, but progressively: diesel makes freight transport more expensive, transport makes food more expensive, and food raises the CPI. The OCU has already estimated an increase of between 8 and 10 cents per liter of fuel in the coming weeks if Brent remains in the $80 range.
What is already going up in your daily life
Gasoline:
In Spain prices rose 11 cents in two days. The most cautious fill their tanks given the feeling that the rise is going to go further. Spanish oil companies assure that there is no risk of shortage, but the numbers keep rising.
Gas and electricity:
The closure of Hormuz and Qatar's decision to stop production -being responsible for a fifth of the world's liquefied natural gas- caused a 40% rise in the price of gas in a single day, reaching 62 euros per megawatt hour when the previous Friday it closed at 31. Four It is estimated that the natural gas bill regulated by the Last Resort Tariff could become up to 100% more expensive in the April review.
Flights:
The attack by Israel and the US on Iran has already had a direct effect on tourism, not only due to the cessation of flights with the closure of airspace, but also due to how it has affected airlines with flights to destinations in Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.
Mortgages:
If inflation rises and the ECB reacts by curbing the planned interest rate cuts, those with variable-rate mortgages will notice the impact on their installment. According to a senior economist at Nomura, a 10% change in crude oil prices causes an impact of 0.4 percentage points on inflation and an approximate impact of 0.2 points through other CPI components over a period of up to three years.
The two scenarios: brief or prolonged
Everything depends on how long it lasts. Analysts are managing two scenarios with very different consequences.
In the favorable scenario, a rapid de-escalation would return oil to levels close to 65 dollars. The inflationary impact would be reduced, the blow to Spanish growth would remain at those two tenths of GDP estimated by Funcas, and gas station prices would normalize in weeks.
In the adverse scenario, if the strait closes and energy infrastructure is damaged, the barrel could exceed 100 dollars for a prolonged period. Inflation could increase by around two percentage points and Europe face a possible recession. For households, this would imply much more expensive gasoline, high energy bills, and pressure on mortgages.
The difference compared to 2022: Spain arrives better, but not armored
The constant reference is Ukraine. In 2022, gas exceeded 300 euros per megawatt hour. Now it is around 57-62 euros. Spain reaches this shock with a lower energy dependence on the Gulf than then: in Spain's case, only 5% of the oil and 2% of the liquefied natural gas consumed transits through the Strait of Hormuz, and its main gas suppliers are Algeria (34.6%) and the United States (30%). The latter opens a second scenario of uncertainty due to the tension between Madrid and Washington.
That cushions, but does not eliminate the risk. The price of energy in Europe is set in global markets, and if those markets become strained, the bill reaches everyone equally.