Inflation in the United States has climbed to 3.3% in March, its highest level in two years, in a context marked by the war escalation in Iran and global energy tension. The price rebound has reactivated fears of a new inflationary crisis and complicates the Federal Reserve's room for maneuver.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the consumer price index also registered a monthly increase of 0.9%, the largest since May 2022, amidst the crisis derived from the war in Ukraine.
Energy, main trigger of the rebound
The sharp rise in fuel prices has been the main driver of inflation. The energy index rose by 10.9% in March, its largest increase since 2005, while gasoline soared by 21.2%, the largest increase since records began in 1967.
The geopolitical context has been decisive: the war between the United States and Israel against Iran has resulted in the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key point through which nearly a fifth of the world's oil transits. Brent crude came close to 120 dollars per barrel, with an increase of nearly 70% since the start of the conflict.
Inflation again pressures the Federal Reserve
The price surge comes at a delicate moment for U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve, which aimed to continue with interest rate cuts, now faces a more uncertain scenario.
The rise in inflation reopens the debate among analysts: while some warn of the need to tighten monetary policy, others consider that the origin of the shock is external and does not respond to internal demand.
Warnings from international organizations
The managing director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, has warned that central banks must be prepared to raise rates if inflation continues to rise, in a context of high global uncertainty.
However, part of the market maintains the expectation that the Fed will not alter its roadmap, considering that the current impact comes mainly from energy and not from an economic overheating.
The evolution of the conflict in the Middle East and the duration of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will be key to determining whether the price rebound is temporary or the beginning of a new inflationary phase.