In comparison with the second round of the past municipal elections, held in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, participation in this electoral process has been notably higher. In 2020, participation at 12:00 hours was barely 15.29%, while this year a significant increase has been registered. In 2014, midday participation reached 19.83%, and in 2008 it was even higher, with 23.68%.
Despite this rebound in participation, the first round of last Sunday's municipal elections ended with the highest abstention rate recorded in this type of election, exceeding 40%, not counting the 2020 elections affected by the pandemic. This data underscores the lack of political involvement of a significant part of the population in the electoral process.
Of the 48 million French people with the right to vote, 17 million are called to the polls in this second round, after the constitution of the mayoralties of more than 90% of the 35,000 City Councils in the first round. Now, the focus is on the big cities, where the results remain uncertain and the battles between the main candidates are more fiercely contested than ever.
Paris and Marseille, keys for the political future
The elections are mainly played out in the five major cities of France, which are shaping up as decisive to determine the political direction for the coming years. In Paris, the city that has been governed by socialists for 25 years, the conservative Rachida Dati is shaping up as one of the main contenders with 25.46% in the first round. Facing her, the left-wing candidates are divided, with Emmanuel Grégoire, the socialist, reaching 38% and the radical Sophia Chikirou with 11.72%. The possibility that Dati snatches the mayoralty from the left is increasingly close.
In Marseille, the country's second city, the current socialist mayor Benoît Payan maintains 36.70% against the far-right Franck Allisio (35%) and the conservative Martine Vassal (12.41%). In this case, the far right seems to have greater chances of influencing the final result.
Nice and the battle for the far right
The city of Nice also emerges as a key battleground for the far-right, with candidate Éric Ciotti (43.43%) in a strong position to defeat the current mayor, Christian Estrosi (30.92%), in office since 2008. This city, which has historically been a stronghold of the traditional right, could become a stronghold for Le Pen's party if Ciotti manages to consolidate his support in the second round.
Left-wing alliances and environmentalist resistance
The rise of the far-right has forced the left to form alliances in various cities, despite the differences between the parties. The most prominent example of this left-wing alliance is Toulouse, although agreements have also been reached in other key cities such as Nantes, Brest, Clermont-Ferrand and Limoges. These coalitions could be decisive for the political future of these localities.
In Lyon, third city of France, the environmentalists are trying to consolidate their power, after the success of 2020. The current mayor, Grégory Doucet, is leading with a 37.36%, although the businessman Jean-Michel Aulas, supported by the right and the center, is emerging as his main competitor, with 36.78%.
The challenge of environmentalists in other cities
However, the greens have an important challenge in Bordeaux, Strasbourg and Grenoble, where they could lose control after their victory in 2020. The future of these cities will be one of the key points of the second round.
What will happen with the candidates of the Executive?
The behavior of the candidates of President Macron's party is also crucial in these elections. In Le Havre, the candidacy of Édouard Philippe, former prime minister, is under great pressure, as failing to revalidate the position could affect his presidential aspirations.
This weekend, French citizens will decide whether the left-wing alliances will prevail or if the far rightwill manage to impose itself in more cities. What is clear is that the 2026 municipal elections mark a crucial stage in French politics.