Peru celebrates this Sunday general elections marked by the maximum political fragmentation of its recent history, with more than 27 million citizens called to the polls to elect who will be its ninth president in barely a decade. The electoral event arrives in a context of institutional wear and tear and citizen disaffection, with a total of 35 candidates in contention, an unprecedented figure in the country.
The high dispersion of the vote makes a second round practically inevitable, scheduled for June 7, since no candidate seems in a position to exceed the 50% necessary to win in the first round.
A decade of political instability
The electoral process comes after ten years of deep political crisis, in which Peru has chained together weak governments, impeachments, and corruption scandals. In this period, four former presidents have been prosecuted or imprisoned, among them Alejandro Toledo, Ollanta Humala, or Pedro Castillo, the latter condemned after his failed attempt to dissolve Congress in 2022.
This scenario has eroded trust in institutions. According to various studies, eight out of ten Peruvians consider that most politicians are corrupt, in a country where voting is mandatory but abstentionism remains significant due to economic and geographical factors.
Fujimori starts as favorite in a fragmented board
In this context, the candidate of Fuerza Popular, Keiko Fujimori, appears as the main favorite in the polls. Daughter of former president Alberto Fujimori, she concentrates a large part of the conservative vote and starts with an advantage in a scenario where no candidate exceeds 20% of voting intention.
Its main strength lies in the cohesion of the so-called “Fujimorism”, facing a fragmented left and a very dispersed political offer. Everything points to it being present in an eventual second round, although it remains uncertain who its rival will be.
Among the possible contenders, also conservative profiles stand out, such as businessman Rafael López Aliaga or presenter Carlos Álvarez, who has gained ground in the final stretch with an anti-system discourse.
Conservative shift in the electorate
One of the most relevant elements of these elections is the advance of the conservative vote, which has grown notably in recent years. Factors such as insecurity, immigration, or the institutional crisis have favored this ideological shift.
This shift translates into a greater presence of right-wing candidates at the top of the polls, while progressive options arrive weakened after the wear and tear of the government of Pedro Castillo.
Solid economy despite the political crisis
Despite institutional instability, Peru maintains a relatively solid economic situation, with growth close to 3% and contained inflation. The country has consolidated itself as a relevant actor in international trade, with an open economy and strong presence in strategic sectors such as mining.
Copper, of which Peru is one of the main global producers, continues to be one of the economic pillars, especially in a global context marked by technological and energy demand.
Nevertheless, experts warn that political uncertainty has limited growth potential and could begin to affect institutional stability if it prolongs.
Territorial division and new political architecture
Another key to the electoral process is the gap between Lima and rural areas, especially in the Andean south, where the progressive vote has historically predominated. However, new generations are showing more volatile and less ideologized behaviors.
Furthermore, these elections mark the return to a bicameral system, with the incorporation of a Senate, which modifies the institutional balance and strengthens the legislative power in a country seeking stability after years of crisis.
An open result
With a divided electorate, an unprecedented political offer and a strong distrust towards the ruling class, Peru faces decisive elections for its immediate future.
The result will not only determine the next Government, but also the country's ability to close a period of chronic instability and regain confidence in its institutions.