The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) of German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, has won the regional elections held this Sunday in Rhineland-Palatinate, displacing for the first time in decades the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which had been at the head of the regional government for 35 years.
Under the leadership of Gordon Schnieder, the CDU opens a new political cycle in the region.
Historic shift in a social democratic bastion
The CDU obtains around 30.6% of the votes, ahead of the SPD, which falls to 25.7%, nearly ten points less compared to the previous elections.
The result means the loss of one of the main historical strongholds of German socialism, which had governed the region uninterruptedly since 1991.
Rise of AfD and collapse of government partners
The third actor of the day has been the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which achieves around 20% of the votes, consolidating its growth in the country as a whole.
In parallel, the parties that were part of the regional government alongside the SPD suffer a clear setback:
- Greens: around 7.7%
- FDP (liberals): close to 2.1%, remaining outside the regional parliament
This result leaves the previous government bloc without a majority and forces to explore new alliances.
Social democratic wear and tear and economic context
The decline of the SPD is framed within a progressive erosion of its electoral base, especially among industrial and middle-income voters.
The economic context has weighed on the vote, with special impact in areas like Ludwigshafen, where the chemical multinational BASF faces adjustments and labor cuts linked to energy costs and the industrial slowdown.
Open scenario: pacts without AfD
Despite the advance of the far-right, the CDU has reiterated that it will not make a pact with AfD, which opens up a scenario of complex negotiations to form a government.
Among the options that are handled is a grand coalition CDU-SPD or other formulas with minor parties.
The result of these regional elections has a reading of national dimension:
- Strengthens the CDU after other regional elections
- Aggravates the SPD crisis within the federal government
- Consolidates AfD's growth on the German political map
These elections take place in a key year, with electoral appointments in other Länder, which turns Rhineland-Palatinate into a thermometer of the German political cycle.