There is a pattern that repeats. A sequence that has unfolded in an almost millimeter-perfect way since the beginning of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran. The president of the United States, Donald Trump, announces advances towards the end of the war with Tehran that slip between supposed offers of a ceasefire, contacts or concrete deadlines that the leader pulls out of his sleeve. And, a few hours later, Tehran denies it.
In his offensives, Trump has shown that he opts for lightning operations. We saw it in Venezuela, with the express capture in January of President Nicolás Maduro, but also in Iran in June of last year, when Washington bombed three nuclear facilities of the Islamic Republic in an attack that marked the end of the armed conflict between the regime of the ayatollahs and Israel.
Therefore, it seems that this war is choking him, even more so when his European partners have turned their backs on him since the beginning of the offensive. Even so, the American leader has been announcing since the first week of attacks an imminent end. On March 10, two weeks after the start of the offensive, Trump assured that the war was "almost over" and called "a small excursion" an attack that, according to him, was "well ahead of schedule".
But, that announced end has been more rhetoric than reality, with a succession of deadlines, changes in discourse and denials that, week after week, have made it evident that what is happening on the ground and on the diplomatic front does not coincide with the White House narrative. This morning, at 9:00 p.m. local time (3:00 a.m. peninsular time), Trump will offer a message to the nation from the Oval Office of the White House, the first since the war began, and with which it is expected that the American president will offer more details about the advances of the offensive.
Iran Slams Trump for "False and Unfounded" Statements
From the first days of the conflict, Trump linked the campaign's objective to preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons and promised a short duration. Already in early March, senior officials of his administration spoke of a campaign that could last only weeks, compared to longer projections.
Throughout March, Trump and other members of his government made repeated optimistic statements. Early in the month he said that military advances were rapid and that the campaign would be brief. On March 19 he stated that militarily Iran was "almost defeated" and that only the issue of the Strait of Hormuz remained to be resolved. On March 23 he even suggested that there had been days of "productive conversations" with Iran.
But, even then, his/her/their messages oscillated between "we have already won" and "there is still work to be done", which generated confusion and questions about whether negotiations really existed or simply desires were being transmitted
What has until now perhaps been Trump's most concrete message landed this Tuesday, when he affirmed that the United States could end its military campaign in Iran "within two or three weeks". According to him, Washington could withdraw without the need for a formal agreement with Tehran, as long as the military objectives of deactivating Iran's nuclear capability were achieved.
Cross-accusations
The most striking thing is that, hours later, the American president assured on his social network Truth that Iran had requested a ceasefire, noting that Washington would consider it "when the Strait of Hormuz is open, free and clear". "The new president of the Iranian regime, much less radical and much more intelligent than his predecessors, has just asked the United States for a ceasefire".
Hours later, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi, has categorically denied the statement, calling it "false and unfounded", highlighting the growing disconnect between presidential statements and facts on the ground.
"Iran has not presented any ceasefire proposal," Araqchi stated in an intervention on the public channel IRIB, adding that the supposed five-point plan attributed to Tehran are "media speculations."
And it is that, far from the presidential narrative, Iranian authorities have repeatedly rejected any claim of direct negotiations with Washington, recognizing however that friendly countries like Pakistan do maintain contacts with the Trump Administration. "For now our policy is to continue resisting and continue defending the country. At this moment we have no intention of negotiating and no negotiations have taken place," the very Araqchi stated a few days ago.
Iranian diplomacy has been clear in denying such versions, reiterating its intention to continue the conflict until it considers its conditions satisfied: a ceasefire that guarantees that the US will not attack the region again.
Clash with Europe and threat to NATO
The inconsistency of Trump's narrative not only impacts the diplomatic front with Iran, but also his relations with Europe. Trump has raised the tone against his allies on the Old Continent, going so far as to state this Wednesday in The Telegraph that he is "more than considering" the United States' exit from NATO.
In his criticism, he has gone so far as to call the Alliance a "paper tiger", reproaching countries like Germany, France or United Kingdom for not having supported the offensive against Iran. The gap has widened even further after countries like Spain and Italy have vetoed the use of US military bases for operations linked to the conflict.
From Washington, even Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has raised "reevaluate the value of NATO", evidencing that the crisis goes beyond the war scenario.
The attacks do not cease
The succession of announcements, rectifications, and denials draws a clear pattern. While Trump insists on projecting an image of control and imminent victory, the facts on the ground and Iran's responses point in the opposite direction.
Far from heading towards its end, the war maintains its military intensity. This very Wednesday, Israel has attacked Tehran and Beirut, causing at least nine deaths, while Iran has responded with attacks in Kuwait, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. Furthermore, Tehran has launched its largest wave of missiles against Israel since the first days of the war, at a particularly symbolic moment, on the eve of the Jewish holiday of Passover.
The humanitarian toll continues to worsen. In Lebanon, Israeli attacks have already left more than 1.300 dead and nearly 4.000 injured, among them more than a hundred children, according to official data. And in that scenario, Washington's narrative appears increasingly disconnected from a reality that, for now, remains marked by escalation.