Since February 28, 2026, the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most crucial points for global energy trade, has been partially blocked by Iran, in a context of open war with the United States and Israel. This strategic passage is used by a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied gas, which has caused an unprecedented increase in energy prices globally. Since the beginning of the crisis, oil prices have soared almost 50%, which has caused a significant increase in gas and electricity prices.
In response to the economic imbalance caused by rising prices, Donald Trump, president of the United States, has been improvising measures to counteract the effects of this situation on American households. Although the White House has granted temporary exemptions to sanctions imposed on Russia, allowing the purchase of Russian oil and easing restrictions on the transport of Iranian oil, prices remain high and the situation remains uncertain.
The Impact of the Escalation of the Conflict on the Global Energy Supply
Iran's decision to block the Strait of Hormuz has had immediate consequences on the global economy. This narrowing of access to the route has caused the supply of oil and gas to be severely affected, and as a result, crude oil prices have increased drastically. Fatih Birol, director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), recently warned that this conflict constitutes the "greatest threat to energy security in history". The amount of oil and gas paralyzed in the Persian Gulf since the beginning of the war exceeds the amount cut to Europe from Russia in 2022.
Birol also pointed out that this conflict has already caused more disruptions in oil supply than the energy crises of the 70s, when crude oil prices soared due to OPEC embargoes. In this regard, Birol explained that while the war could end shortly, the recovery of oil and gas infrastructure will take months, and even years, depending on the extent of the damage. Some key locations, such as the Natanz facilities, one of Iran's uranium enrichment centers, have been severely affected by the bombings, and repairing that damage could take years.
Trump's Response: Threats and Tactics of "Escorting" the Ships
The administration of Trump, given this scenario, has adopted an aggressive approach. The American president threatened to attack Iran's energy infrastructure, including its electricity generation system, if the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened for ship traffic. On his Truth Social account, Trump warned that "if Iran does not TOTALLY, WITHOUT THREATS, open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 HOURS, the United States will attack and annihilate its various power plants, STARTING WITH THE LARGEST ONE!".
This type of threat, however, has not been well received even within the ranks of the United States' own allies. Intervention in the strait, which is controlled by Iran, presents a delicate situation, as military bases in the region, such as those in the United Arab Emirates, are close to the conflict's hot spots. In this regard, Trump also tried to implement measures such as the deployment of warships to escort oil-carrying vessels, but the logistical difficulties in such a limited area, like the Strait of Hormuz, make this solution unfeasible.
The Blockade of Iran and its Impact on the Global Economy: Prices, Trade and Geopolitics
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has had economic effects on several fronts. Not only have oil prices increased, but the economic consequences are felt in American households, which are paying more for gasoline. According to a recent survey by Reuters/Ipsos, 55% of Americans have indicated that their household finances have been affected by the increase in gasoline prices, with 21% pointing out that the impact has been significant.
For its part, the Trump administration's efforts to curb rising prices include easing sanctions on Iranian oil and Russian oil, which has allowed some countries, such as India, to buy sanctioned crude from Russia to ease pressures on international energy markets.
Furthermore, energy supply problems in Europe and Asia are becoming increasingly evident, and world leaders, including European and Asian governments, are looking for ways to reduce dependence on energy supplies from the Persian Gulf region. France and United Kingdom are already considering alternatives to Iranian oil and gas, and although sanctions have been temporarily relaxed, the war continues to have a lasting impact on global energy security.
Conclusions: A World Less Dependent on Hormuz?
The future of global energy relations is now more at risk than ever. While the Iran war continues to affect the energy market, the chances of a quick solution being found are minimal. Analysts warn that even if the conflict ceases, the recovery of key infrastructures will take a significant time, which could continue to fuel pressures on global energy prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is vital for the global economy, and the nations of the world will have to consider if it is time to seek alternative routes or take new measures to guarantee global energy stability in the coming years.