With the scrutiny above 99.5%, the difference between Sánchez and López Aliaga is around 13,000 votes, pending the resolution of the last minutes observed and challenged by electoral bodies. The second round is scheduled for June 7.
Keiko Fujimori awaits rival in a vote-by-vote final
Peru enters the decisive hours of its presidential recount. Keiko Fujimori, candidate of Fuerza Popular, remains the leading force and has practically secured passage to the second round. The big unknown is who will compete against her: the leftist Roberto Sánchez or the far-rightist Rafael López Aliaga.
The difference between both has narrowed to leave a minimal electoral final. According to the data released with the count above 99.5%, Fujimori remains around 17.17% of the votes; Sánchez appears close to 11.99%; and López Aliaga is around 11.91%. The distance between the two aspirants for the second place is around 13,000 votes.
The photograph is extraordinarily tight: Fujimori's leadership is no longer being discussed, but rather the ideological profile of the second round. If Sánchez advances, the election will pit Fujimorista right-wing against a left-wing candidacy. If López Aliaga manages to rally, the duel will shift towards a dispute between two right-wing factions with very different agendas.
What remains to be told
The count is practically closed, but not finished. Of a total of more than 92,000 records, several hundred remain to be resolved that were sent to the Special Electoral Juries due to challenges, observations, or transcription errors. That is the pool that keeps the definitive proclamation in suspense.
The National Elections Jury had set May 15 as the deadline for ONPE to conclude the count and for the two candidates for the runoff to be defined. The date of the new vote is set for June 7.
In an election with such a small margin, every pending ballot counts. The difference between Sánchez and López Aliaga has been moving during the last few days, which explains the tension among campaigns, observers, and electoral authorities.
Roberto Sánchez resists in second place
Roberto Sánchez, candidate of Juntos por el Perú, reaches the final stretch of the scrutiny with a narrow but real advantage over López Aliaga. His candidacy has found a good part of its support outside of Lima, in regions where the anti-Fujimori vote, the memory of Pedro Castillo's term, and the demand for institutional changes continue to carry weight.
Reuters was already indicating in mid-April that Sánchez was disputing passage to the second round vote by vote with López Aliaga, in a prolonged count marked by pending records from rural areas and the vote from abroad.
The candidate has asked that the vote of "deep Peru" be respected and has warned of a possible climate of tension if the losers do not acknowledge the result. His message directly addresses the legitimacy of the scrutiny and the need to await the resolution of the pending minutes before any definitive proclamation.
López Aliaga denounces harm and increases pressure
Rafael López Aliaga, candidate of Renovación Popular and former mayor of Lima, has maintained a line of denunciation against the electoral process. His campaign maintains that the logistical problems registered on voting day, especially in Lima, affected his possibilities.
The candidate has arrived to claim complementary elections in the capital and has accused electoral authorities of harming him. However, observation missions and organizations like Transparencia have pointed out that logistical incidents did not alter the final result of the election. Reuters and AP have also reported that López Aliaga denounced fraud without providing conclusive evidence, while international observers found no evidence of manipulation.
Political pressure has intensified due to his warnings against the president of the National Elections Jury, Roberto Burneo, whom he has held responsible for the outcome. This climate anticipates a complicated runoff election, regardless of Fujimori's opponent.
Why Lima is key in the dispute
The fight between Sánchez and López Aliaga has a very marked geography. López Aliaga concentrates a good part of his strength in Lima, while Sánchez has shown more resistance in regions. That territorial difference explains why the delays, observed minutes, and pending votes have been interpreted so differently by each candidacy.
La República published that, with several regions already at 100% of ballots counted, the data confirmed the limitation of López Aliaga's support outside of Lima, while Sánchez and Fujimori appeared with better territorial deployment.
That distribution matters a lot in Peru, a country where the Lima vote and the regional vote tend to express deep political fractures: center versus periphery, urban elites versus rural territories, and institutional stability versus demand for change.
Fujimori, first but far from a comfortable victory
Keiko Fujimori returns to the presidential runoff, but does so with a limited percentage. Her 17% confirms her ability to retain a solid base, but also shows the extreme fragmentation of the Peruvian political system.
The leader of Fuerza Popular competes for the fourth time for the presidency. Her surname continues to be one of the country's major polarizing factors: it mobilizes a loyal electorate, but also activates a strong anti-Fujimorismo.
The second round will therefore be a completely different election. In the first round, more than 30 candidacies fragmented the vote. In June, the country will have to choose between two options, and there the rejection of each candidate may weigh as much as their own support.
Two very different scenarios for the runoff
If Roberto Sánchez ends up confirmed as Fujimori's rival, Peru will head towards a second round of maximum ideological polarization: Fujimorist right versus left. That scenario would activate debates on the Constitution, economic model, natural resources, public order, and institutional stability.
If Rafael López Aliaga manages to make a comeback, the duel would be different: Fujimori against a far-right candidate, with a dispute more focused on security, conservatism, a strong hand, economic management, and leadership within the space opposing the left.
In both cases, the next president will inherit a deeply unstable country. AP recalls that Peru has experienced a succession of political crises and that the winner will be the country's ninth president in a decade.
An election marked by delays and distrust
The Peruvian electoral process has been conditioned by delays in the installation of polling stations, logistical problems, and a particularly prolonged count. Electoral bodies have defended the validity of the process, while affected candidates have tried to turn these incidents into a political argument.
El Comercio analyzed the impact of the tables that were not installed on the first day and concluded that the main candidates - Fujimori, Sánchez, and López Aliaga - barely varied their percentages in those tables with respect to the rest of the count.
That data weakens the thesis that the delays decisively altered the dispute for the second round, although it does not eliminate the political tension generated by such a narrow margin.
All the keys to the result
The first key is that Fujimori wins the first round, but with an insufficient result to avoid a runoff. The second is that Roberto Sánchez and Rafael López Aliaga arrive separated by a minimal difference, pending the last ballots. The third is that the identity of Fujimori's rival will completely change the tone of the second round.
The fourth key is institutional: Peru returns to a decisive election in a climate of distrust towards electoral bodies and high political fragmentation. The fifth is territorial: the result once again shows the distance between Lima and the rest of the country.
The ONPE enters the final stretch of the count. The JNE will have to proclaim the candidates. And Peru, once again, prepares to elect a president in a tense run-off.