General election poll: PP and PSOE, on track to repeat July 23rd as Vox consolidates and Sumar plummets, according to Sigma Dos

This is reflected in the latest Sigma Dos survey, which points to apparent stability in the two major parties, but to a profound transformation in the progressive bloc.

PP and PSOE match 23J: stability at the top

The Popular Party would win the elections again with 32.3% of the votes and 138 seats, practically the same result as in July 2023. The PSOE, for its part, manages to resist and regain ground to 27% and nearly 110 seats, approaching its position on July 23 again after months of wear and tear. The two major parties return to occupy the center of the board, consolidating a reinforced bipartisanship.

Vox consolidates itself as the third key force

In this scenario, Vox maintains a solid position around 17% of the vote, which allows it to remain decisive in the sum of the right. Although it loses slight momentum in seats compared to previous months, its weight remains structural. The alternative majority to the PSOE continues to depend on Vox.

Sumar collapses and loses almost a third of its strength

The big change in the poll is on the left. Sumar falls to 10 seats, losing 4 deputies in just two months and leaving behind almost 30% of its representation. In parallel, Podemos stagnates around 3.5% and barely manages to maintain a residual presence. Together, the space to the left of the PSOE goes from 31 deputies in 2023 to barely 12. A collapse that breaks any option of reissuing the investiture bloc.

Sánchez absorbs the left's vote with the "No to war"

The key movement is in the vote transfer. 19.2% of Sumar voters in 2023 would now opt for the PSOE, in the largest transfer recorded to date.
This shift coincides with Pedro Sánchez's strategic turn towards anti-war discourse after the war in Iran. Therefore, the PSOE is not growing on its own, but by absorbing from its left.

The progressive bloc loses governing capacity

The combined effect is clear: the PSOE is strengthened but its bloc is weakened. Although Sánchez improves his figures, the sum with Sumar and Podemos falls far short of a majority. The left goes from being a governing option to being left without a viable alternative.
 

Source: El Mundo for Sigma Dos, published on 05/04/2026.