Spain faces this Saturday a day still marked by weather more typical of the end of winter than mid-May. The State Meteorological Agency forecasts a cold environment in the early hours, with temperatures dropping, weak frosts in mountainous areas, and weak snowfalls during the early morning in areas of the northern peninsula.
The scenario, however, is beginning to change. The progressive entry of an anticyclone will stabilize the atmosphere in a large part of the Peninsula, although before that it will leave a very un-spring-like picture: cold at dawn, snow at high altitudes, strong winds in the east, and rain still present in the far north.
The key to the weekend lies in the contrast. Saturday will start with a cold sensation and some winter phenomena, but the maximum temperatures will begin to recover in many areas. Next week, moreover, could bring a much more abrupt change, with temperatures clearly rising and values that could exceed 30ºC in several areas of Spain.
Where it will be coldest this Saturday
The cold will be most noticeable in the early hours of the day. Minimum temperatures will drop in a large part of the Peninsula and also in the Balearic Islands, which will favor weak frosts in mountainous areas of the northern half.
It will not be a generalized cold snap, but it will be a notable episode for May. In many areas, the sensation when going out early will be more like March than late spring. Light outerwear will still be useful before the anticyclone finally imposes a more stable environment.
Morning fog banks may also appear in mountainous areas, something especially relevant for those with early road trips.
Weak snow in northern mountains
One of the most striking elements of the day will be the possibility of weak snowfalls during the early morning in the mountains of the northern peninsula. AEMET considers this phenomenon significant for this Saturday, although no large generalized accumulations are expected.
The snow will be mainly associated with high altitudes and mountainous areas, in a context of still present cold air. It is not an exceptional storm situation, but it is an unusual sight for mid-May: snow, frost, and cold weather just when the calendar is already looking towards summer.
In mountainous areas, the recommendation is clear: caution when traveling, attention to visibility, and checking road conditions if traveling early.
Strong winds in Tarragona and Castellón
The wind will be another of the protagonists of Saturday. The forecast points to very strong gusts of northwesterly wind, exceeding 70 kilometers per hour, in the pre-coastal mountain ranges of Tarragona and Castellón.
In these areas, the wind can complicate the day on exposed roads, elevated areas, and outdoor activities. It is not the typical annoying wind of "my napkin blew away"; we are talking about gusts capable of making driving difficult and requiring extreme caution.
In the rest of the country, the wind will generally be weaker, with a predominance of the northwest in many areas, although in the extreme south and Alborán, the east wind will prevail.
Rain in Galicia, Cantabria, and the Pyrenees
The north of the peninsula will continue to be the most unstable area. Galicia, the Cantabrian area, and the western Pyrenees will maintain cloudy or overcast skies, with light precipitation during the day.
An especially adverse rainfall episode is not expected, but rather a gray and humid Saturday in these areas. Stability will arrive sooner to the rest of the Peninsula, where the anticyclone will open up clear skies, leaving them more cloudless.
In the Canary Islands, the forecast points to cloudy skies and probable light precipitation in the north of the larger islands, with cloudy intervals in the rest of the archipelago. The trade winds will blow moderately, with strong intervals and possible very strong gusts.
More sun in the center and south, but with some isolated showers
Outside the extreme north, the weather will be more stable. In a large part of the central, western, and southern peninsular areas, skies will be mostly clear or cloudless, a sign that the anticyclone is beginning to gain ground.
Even so, in the afternoon, developing clouds may form, and occasional showers are not ruled out in Andalusia, especially in the Strait of Gibraltar area.
The day, therefore, will not be the same throughout Spain. In the north, instability will still weigh heavily; in the rest, the weather will turn towards a calmer situation, although with cold temperatures at dawn and in the early hours.
Maximums rise, but minimums fall
Saturday will bring a clear thermal contrast. Maximum temperatures will rise in the Balearic Islands and in most of the Peninsula, allowing for a more bearable sensation during the central hours of the day.
Minimum temperatures, on the other hand, will fall in many areas. That is the trick of the day: it will be cold in the morning, but at midday the atmosphere will be somewhat milder in a large part of the country.
The exception to the rise in highs will be in Alborán, Ibiza, and the southeastern peninsular coasts, where thermometers could drop.
The weather turn will arrive next week
The cold spell has an expiration date. Next week, a much clearer change will arrive, with a progressive rise in temperatures and an increasingly warm environment. Some forecasts point to highs above 30ºC in numerous areas and even higher values in southern spots.
That thermal jump will be the real meteorological news of the coming days: from weak frosts and snow in the mountains to an almost summery environment in a short time.
May is behaving as May knows how to do when it wants to get attention: first it takes the scarf out of the drawer and then it threatens to turn on the fan.