Spain has once again distanced itself from the international economic slowdown. Amidst the full impact of the war in the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the Spanish economy will maintain its momentum and lead growth among the major European powers for five consecutive years, consolidating a trend that began after the pandemic.
The organization places GDP growth at 2.1% for 2026, a figure lower than the 2.8% of the previous year and two tenths below its January forecast, reflecting the impact of the conflict in the Gulf after the escalation between the United States, Israel, and Iran. Even so, Spain not only resists, but maintains an advantage over its partners.
A contained slowdown in an adverse context
The report led by Kristalina Georgieva confirms that the Spanish economy is not immune to the impact of the war: it will grow less, generate less employment and suffer more inflationary pressure. However, the adjustment is moderate compared to the deterioration foreseen for other advanced economies.
By 2027, growth will moderate to 1.8%, in line with the international context, but enough to keep Spain at the forefront within the European Union.
Advantage against the large European economies
While Spain maintains solid growth, the main economies of the continent advance at a much weaker pace. Germany will barely manage to grow 0.8% this year, hampered by the weakness of its industry, while France will remain at 0.9% and Italy will barely reach 0.5%.
This differential consolidates a structural trend: Spain will string together a five-year period leading growth among the large European economies, also ahead of countries like the Netherlands or Austria, in a scenario of generalized deceleration.
Strong employment and more balanced public accounts
The IMF highlights that the Spanish economy arrives better prepared for this new crisis than in previous episodes. The labor market maintains its strength and the unemployment rate will fall to 9.8%, its lowest level since before the 2008 crisis, although the organization does not foresee significant additional improvements in the short term.
To this is added a progressive improvement of public accounts, with a deficit in reduction and a current account balance that will remain in positive, although with less intensity in the coming years.
The energy threat and the inflationary risk
Despite this better positioning, the main risk remains outside the borders. The war in the Persian Gulf has reactivated tensions over energy prices, especially after threats over transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery through which a substantial part of the world's oil and gas circulates.
The rising energy costs are already starting to pass on to prices. In Spain, inflation has risen to 3.4%, the highest level since 2022, and could climb much higher if the conflict continues. The risk, warn various organizations, is clear: a price spiral that erodes consumption and curbs growth.
A more resilient economic model, but not immune
The Spanish economy has demonstrated a notable capacity for recovery since the pandemic, driven by tourism, European funds, and a more diversified energy system, with a greater weight of renewables. This last factor has allowed to partially cushion the impact of the rising cost of gas compared to other European countries, according to the body.
However, the IMF insists on the need for prudence. The evolution of the conflict will be decisive and could quickly alter the scenario. The sustained increase in energy prices would not only pressure inflation, but would also weaken consumption, the main driver of growth.
Public aid and limited room for maneuver
In this context, Pedro Sánchez's Government has deployed a new package of aid to cushion the impact on households and businesses, following the strategy applied in previous crises. However, the IMF warns that these measures must be temporary and selective, at a time when the fiscal margin is increasingly narrow.
The final diagnosis points to an economy that resists better than its neighbors, but remains exposed to a volatile international environment. Spain maintains cruising speed, but the course will largely depend on what happens thousands of kilometers away, in a conflict that threatens to reconfigure the global economic balance.