The Government has positively valued that the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates that Spain will continue leading economic growth among the main economies of the euro zone in 2026 and 2027, despite the impact of the war in Iran.
"The differential with our European partners according to the central scenario of the forecasts remains wide," they have highlighted from the Department headed by Carlos Cuerpo, after the publication this Tuesday of the "World Economic Outlook" by the IMF.
According to the new projections of the international body, Spanish GDP will increase by 2.1% in 2026, clearly above the 1.1% forecast for the euro area as a whole. For 2027, the IMF estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 1.8%, compared to the 1.2% estimated for the eurozone. In addition, the Fund foresees an average inflation of 3% in Spain in 2026.
Regarding the labor market, the IMF forecasts that the unemployment rate in Spain will remain below 10% both in 2026 and in 2027, which, in the opinion of the organization, consolidates the path of continuous improvement observed in recent years.
The Executive emphasizes that Spain faces the "shock" derived from the conflict in the Middle East from a position of strength, supported by intense job creation. This dynamism of the labor market is, according to the Government, one of the key factors that explain the better relative performance of the Spanish economy compared to the rest of the euro zone in a context of high global uncertainty.
This "solidity" has allowed the Government to activate the 5 billion shock fiscal plan --plus 2 billion in guarantees-- with the aim of protecting households and businesses from the tensions derived from the conflict.
According to the Executive's calculations, the measures applied since March 20 --focused on fuels and fertilizers-- will have a direct impact of up to one percentage point in the moderation of inflation in April, May, and June, also contributing to avoid second-round effects on the shopping basket.