The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility (AIReF) has once again lowered its growth forecasts for the Spanish economy in 2026 and has warned of “internal inconsistencies” in the macroeconomic framework submitted by the Government, in a context marked by international uncertainty and doubts about fiscal developments.
The body chaired by Cristina Herrero now places GDP growth at 2.2% for 2026, below previous estimates and also slightly below the forecasts made by the Executive. The revision comes after analyzing the Initial Budgets of Public Administrations and the new economic scenario sent to Brussels.
AIReF considers that the Government's macroeconomic framework maintains some assumptions that do not quite fit together and warns that the scenario does not fully incorporate some risks arising from the geopolitical situation and international economic developments.
AIReF sees risks to public accounts
In addition to the growth revision, the fiscal authority warns of possible difficulties in complying with both the national spending rule and the new European fiscal requirements.
In its report, the institution points out that Spain will have to make additional adjustments in the coming years to ensure a path compatible with the fiscal rules reactivated by the European Union. AIReF also emphasizes that the current context continues to be marked by "high uncertainty," especially due to the impact of the situation in the Middle East, energy developments, and interest rate behavior.
The independent body also warns that some budget items could experience deviations from the Government's initial forecasts.
The Government maintains a more optimistic tone
The Executive of Pedro Sánchez currently maintains a more favorable scenario for the Spanish economy and argues that Spain will continue to grow above the eurozone average thanks to consumption, tourism, employment, and the arrival of European funds.
However, AIReF insists that there are elements that advise prudence and calls for greater coherence between the different macroeconomic variables used by the Government to prepare its forecasts.
The fiscal authority has been warning for months that the return of European fiscal rules will force Spain to face gradual adjustments in deficit and debt, especially given the structural increase in public spending and population aging.
About AIReF
The Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility is the body responsible for supervising public accounts and evaluating Spain's fiscal sustainability. Although its reports are not binding, its analyses are especially relevant because they serve as a reference for Brussels, markets, and economic institutions.
Its forecasts are usually observed with attention by the Government, autonomous communities, investors, and European bodies, especially in times of economic uncertainty or budgetary negotiation.