The war in Iran continues to put international markets on alert. This Monday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has lowered its global growth forecasts and has warned that the conflict in the Middle East could push the global economy towards a new recession.
The organization now places global GDP growth at 3.1% for 2026, two tenths below what was foreseen at the beginning of the year, in a context marked by uncertainty after the attacks by Israel and the United States against Iran.
In that scenario, Spain stands out from the global slowdown and maintains its economic momentum, with a growth of 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027 that confirm the same calculation advanced just three weeks ago, although they lower by two tenths the estimates published in January.
A global scenario marked by uncertainty
The report, presented in Washington under the direction of Kristalina Georgieva, introduces for the first time the direct impact of the conflict in its calculations and abandons its traditional "base scenario" to opt for a more uncertain framework. IMF technicians recognize that the evolution of the war conditions any forecast and propose different scenarios that reflect to what extent the world economy moves on unstable ground.
In the event that the conflict is limited and short-lived, global growth would remain at moderate levels, just above 3%. However, the outlook changes significantly if the war is prolonged and pushes up energy prices.
From the economic sudden stop to the risk of recession
In that case, the slowdown would be more intense, and in the most severe scenario, with oil and gas soaring and a direct effect on food, the global economy would be on the brink of a recession, with growth around 2%, a threshold that has historically coincided with episodes of crisis such as that caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The IMF makes clear that the energy factor is once again at the center of global economic risk, with the capacity to drag inflation, consumption, and investment.
Europe: Exposed to the Conflict
Europe appears as one of the most vulnerable regions to this deterioration. The European Union would see its growth cool down to 1.1% in 2026, hampered by the energy impact and industrial weakness. Economies like Germany, France or Italy would barely achieve modest advances.
The body emphasizes that the rising cost of energy, intensified since the war in Ukraine, continues to act as a structural drag, especially for the European manufacturing sector.
Inflation and warning to central banks
Beyond growth, the IMF focuses on risks to economic stability. Inflation could rebound if the conflict becomes entrenched, forcing central banks to intervene cautiously. The message is clear, they must be prepared to act, but avoiding hasty decisions that could stifle the recovery.
At the same time, the body warns of a progressive deterioration of public finances. Aid to cushion the crisis, the economic slowdown and the increase in the cost of debt are reducing governments' room for maneuver.
In this context, insists on the need to rebuild fiscal space, especially at a time when spending is pressured by structural factors such as the aging of the population or the increase in defense investment.
An increasingly fragile economic balance
The final diagnosis of the International Monetary Fund depicts a global economy in precarious balance, where risks clearly lean downwards. The evolution of the war in the Middle East will be decisive, but not the only factor.
The ability of economies to adapt, boost productivity, and leverage advances like artificial intelligence will make the difference between a simple slowdown and a new global crisis.