The consequences of a war are countless. First, of course, the lives that are lost, but there are also social, geopolitical, and economic after-effects. And in a conflict like the one in the Middle East, with changes in forecasts and stances almost daily, the effects are accompanied by notable uncertainty, and that makes them even more uncontrollable. One of the sectors that analyzes the evolution of the war with fear is the tourism sector.
Because, furthermore, a confrontation like the current one, which began with the attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, has repercussions in the countries in the environment of those directly involved, and also in others very far away. This is what Iván Méndez, manager of the Union of Travel Agencies (UNAV), refers to: “Tourism and war are antagonistic terms. The impact of the current situation (beyond the deaths, which is the worst) is not limited solely to travel to the Middle East. It goes much further”.
International air connectivity
The alterations, continues Méndez, affect international air connectivity, also impacting numerous itineraries to Asia, Africa, and Oceania, which depend on connections through Gulf countries, causing cancellations, route modifications, and traveler reallocations.
Dubai, Arabia, Oman, Qatar, obviously, are the most affected destinations, with a drop of almost 100%, comments David Hernández, founder and CEO of Pangea, but it also has resonance "in surrounding destinations such as Maldives or Egypt, which are not affected by the war, but by the uncertainty," he highlights.
Hernández introduces a novel assessment, which aligns with the social response that Trump is receiving: “The United States is also suffering the consequences. It used to be a Top 3 destination for Spaniards, and now it may have dropped 20 places in the ranking, and I think it has to do with the rejection of what its president is doing.”
Alternative destinations
Logically, the decrease (practically 100%) in certain destinations has a direct (and positive) impact on others. Christian Lucas, CEO of Central de Vacaciones, talks about these “alternative destinations” and places them in Latin America, the Caribbean, Europe, West Africa, or the Mediterranean. These places, he states, “are going to be the most benefited next summer.
For José Manuel Lastra, first vice president of the Spanish Confederation of Travel Agencies (CEAV), "people who are prone to long-haul travel are still doing it, but they are diverting their destinations towards America".
Others in which there will be positive effects, adds Lastra, are European ones, Turkey or Egypt –“which were affected at the beginning, but are now already functioning normally”– and Morocco, “where there has been no change, and there continues to be a continuous increase in Spanish travelers, as in recent years”.
National Demand
Among the countries that, predictably, will increase the influx of tourists is Spain. Recently, the Minister of Industry and Tourism, Jordi Hereu, highlighted that the sector faces the international context “with solvency and capacity for anticipation”. The minister linked that message to the official figures at the start of the year, with a 9.3% increase in tourism spending in January, a 1.2% growth in the number of visitors, and tourism affiliation at historic highs, with 2.75 million workers in February.
Hereu pointed out that, in the short term, a reorientation of tourist flows from the Eastern Mediterranean towards the Western is observed, with displacements from countries like Turkey or Egypt towards destinations such as Italy, Greece or Spain.
He also explained the establishment of a monitoring group to analyze the possible consequences, both positive and negative, of the Iran war on tourism. As he detailed, this group works with information from Turespaña offices abroad and in coordination with the sector to monitor the evolution of issuing markets and channel business concerns.
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Spanish tourism expects 4.239 million due to the refuge effect after the war in the Middle East
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The price of energy
Also Exceltur, in its report Tourism Perspectives nº 96, reflected this good moment for tourism in Spain, although it called for prudence due to the energy price increase derived from the war in the Middle East and its possible effect on business margins.
According to this study, tourism GDP grew by 2.1% in the first quarter, driven by demand, especially international demand. The report also includes a 3.2% increase in hotel overnight stays by foreign tourists, an 8.5% increase in international tourism revenue, and a 4.4% rise in average daily spending. It also highlights the progress of markets such as China (+40.6%), Latin America (+17.5%), Poland (+15.7%), Portugal (+14.3%), and the United States (+7.4%).
Facing the summer, Exceltur maintains a favorable forecast, although it introduces a message of caution. The report warns that the increase in costs derived from the conflict may strain the sector's profitability, with forecasts of increases of 9% in oil, 8.1% in energy, and 7% in other supplies.