Average of polls in Andalusia: Moreno would achieve an absolute majority, Montero remains at minimums and Vox loses strength in the final stretch

Less than a month before the Andalusian elections on May 17, the average of the main polls paints a fairly clear picture: Juanma Moreno is in a position to govern alone, but he will still have to hold his breath. The average of polls places the PP in a range of between 55 and 57 seats, just at the limit of the absolute majority (55 deputies).

• CENTRA places it between 54 and 57
• IMOP places it between 53 and 55
• GAD3 raises it to 56–58

The reading is evident: the PP is about to score a goal and is risking everything in the few weeks left until May 17, with an average that seems to intuit, for now, a result of 55 or 56 seats.

In vote, the popular ones move between 42% and 44%, consolidating a very wide advantage over the rest of the parties.

The PSOE is trapped in historic lows

The great pattern that is repeated in all the polls is the weakness of the PSOE. The average places the socialists between 27 and 29 seats, below -or in the best of cases equaling- their result of 2022.

• CENTRA: 26–27 seats
• IMOP: 27–29
• GAD3: 28–29

A few weeks before the elections, Montero's PSOE must push because it is still very far, on average, from the 2022 results. The latest poll data point to a debacle: 28 seats.

In percentage of vote, the PSOE is moving around 21%–23%, far from the PP and, as we say, without clear signs of a comeback. María Jesús Montero's candidacy fails to activate the vote or close the gap in the decisive phase.

Vox grows compared to 2022, but loses momentum in April

The third key player shows a more complex evolution. The average places Vox between 15 and 17 seats, which represents an improvement compared to the 14 it obtained in 2022, but with a downward trend in recent weeks.

• IMOP gave him up to 18–20 seats
• CENTRA places him at 17–20
• GAD3 lowers the forecast to 13–14

That is to say, Vox aimed high, but enters the final stretch with signs of cooling, which reduces its ability to condition the government. 

The worst nightmare for Juanma Moreno's people, all things considered, remains an unknown and will depend largely on how the Andalusians digest the results of the pacts in Extremadura and Aragon. For now, the average is clear: 17 seats. 

The alternative left remains fragmented and without blocking capacity

In the space to the left of the PSOE, the average confirms stability but also irrelevance for the final result.

• For Andalusia: 5-6 seats
• Forward Andalusia: 2-4 seats

Together, this bloc adds between 7 and 9 deputies, far from compensating for the socialist weakness. Here comes another big question: how will the seats move, especially in areas like Cádiz or Córdoba.

The logical thing, given the averages, is that the bloc as a whole ends up winning a seat, surely leaning towards Adelante Andalucía, with Por Andalucía ending up with the same representation as before - and blocking the flight of votes towards Montero's party - and Adelante gaining a third seat.