Less than a month before the Andalusian elections on May 17, Juanma Moreno's People's Party takes a step forward in the polls. The latest GAD3 survey places it between 56 and 58 seats, surpassing the absolute majority threshold set at 55.
The figure represents an improvement compared to the survey at the end of March, when the PP was between 54 and 57 deputies. The advance is slight, but significant: Moreno goes from depending on the final result to placing himself, at least demoscopically, in a position to govern alone.
In percentage of vote, the PP reaches 44.1%, consolidating its advantage and reinforcing a sustained trend during the last months.
The PSOE worsens compared to March and moves even further away
The evolution is negative for the PSOE. María Jesús Montero's candidacy drops slightly to 23.5% from 23.8% in the previous GAD3 poll and is situated between 28 and 29 seats.
A month ago the party was moving between 29 and 30 deputies. That is to say, not only does it not improve, but it regresses and falls again below the 2022 figure.
The distance with the PP not only remains, but widens, confirming that the PSOE continues to have no capacity for reaction in the final stretch towards the elections.
Vox loses steam and moves away from pressure on the PP
The clearest change compared to March is in Vox. The party goes from a range of 14-15 seats to now being between 13 and 14.
In vote, it falls to 13.3%, which represents a setback compared to the previous month and, in some scenarios, even below its 2022 result.
The braking reduces its capacity to condition the outcome and moves away the scenario of a government dependent on Vox.
The alternative left rearranges itself, but the bloc does not change
In the space to the left of the PSOE there are movements, but without structural impact.
For Andalusia rises slightly to 6 seats, while Adelante Andalucía is around 4 deputies, with a slight loss compared to the previous poll.
The fragmentation of the progressive bloc remains and continues to be far from an alternative majority.
A clearer scenario than a month ago
The comparison between both surveys leaves a clear conclusion: the scenario does not change radically, but it does become more refined: the PP improves and places itself above the absolute majority, the PSOE worsens and moves even further away and, above all, Vox loses momentum and reduces its decisive role
That is to say, the right-wing bloc remains dominant, but now with a PP closer to governing without support. Despite the improvement of Juanma Moreno's party, the result still depends on a narrow margin. The survey itself indicates that the difference between an absolute majority and not reaching it could be in just a few thousand votes.
With a relevant volume of undecided voters and potential abstention, the final stretch of the campaign will be decisive.
GAD3 for ABC, published on 19/04/2026
| PARTY | SEATS | % OF VOTE |
| PP | 56-58 | 44,1 |
| PSOE | 28-29 | 23,5 |
| VOX | 13-14 | 13,3 |
| Por Andalucía | 6 | 7,6 |
| Adelante Andalucía | 4 | 6,1 |