The Andalusian elections of 2026 enter their decisive phase. Next Sunday, May 17, Andalusians will elect the new composition of the regional Parliament in elections marked by a big question: whether Juanma Moreno will be able to renew the absolute majority of the PP or if he will need support to continue governing.
The polls published during the campaign place the Popular Party as the leading force, with a wide advantage over María Jesús Montero's PSOE. Vox appears as the third force, while Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía compete to maintain space in a divided left-wing bloc.
The absolute majority in the Parliament of Andalusia is set at 55 seats, out of a total of 109 deputies. That is the key frontier of the campaign: not only who wins, but whether the PP manages to overcome that threshold or remains dependent on parliamentary arithmetic.
Weekly average of polls for the 2026 Andalusian elections
The average of polls published each week allows us to observe the evolution of the Andalusian political scene from a broader perspective than that of an isolated survey. The trend maintains the PP as the dominant party in the community, with a clear distance from the PSOE.
The main interest is in the evolution of the final stages of the campaign. There it is measured whether the PP maintains enough strength to aspire to an absolute majority, whether the PSOE manages to close the gap before the polls, and whether Vox grows enough to condition governability.
The general picture points to a stable campaign at the top, but open in the remainder. In Andalusia, small provincial variations can be decisive in the final distribution of seats.
PP, first; PSOE, far behind and Vox, third
The general average of polls confirms the PP's advantage in the Andalusian electoral race. The Popular Party goes into the vote as favorites and with the absolute majority as their main political objective.
The PSOE faces the final stretch with difficulties in approaching the PP and with the challenge of avoiding a particularly weak result in a community that for decades was its main regional stronghold. María Jesús Montero has tried to mobilize the progressive electorate, but polls continue to place the socialists far from first place.
Vox remains the third force. Its role will depend directly on the PP's result: if Moreno exceeds 55 seats, the party will have no decisive capacity for the investiture; if the PP falls short, Vox will once again have a key position in the legislature.
Behind, Por Andalucía and Adelante Andalucía seek representation in a particularly demanding scenario for the alternative left. The division of the space may have relevant effects on the final distribution of deputies.
Andalusia 2026 Survey Finder: consult all polls
In this search engine, all electoral polls used for Demócrata's graphics on the 2026 Andalusian elections can be consulted.
The tool allows you to review surveys published during the pre-campaign and campaign, compare polling companies, publication dates, vote estimates, and the evolution of the main parties.
The search engine brings together the available polls to follow the evolution of PP, PSOE, Vox, Por Andalucía, and Adelante Andalucía before the vote on May 17.
Centra: the PP could revalidate the absolute majority
The Andalusian Public Foundation Center for Andalusian Studies, the Centra, published on April 14 its latest barometer on the estimation of votes in the community, along with other current issues, ahead of the elections to the Andalusian Parliament on May 17.
The report indicates that the PP-A could revalidate victory with an absolute majority of up to 57 deputies and 42.8% of the votes. The popular party would lead the PSOE-A by 21.8 points, which would concentrate 21% of the votes and drop to a range of between 26 and 27 seats.
The barometer places PP-A on the verge of re-editing the absolute majority it achieved in the June 2022 elections, when it won with 58 deputies. However, it could also fall one seat short of the minimum of 55 deputies with which the absolute majority is reached in the Andalusian Parliament.
Vox would grow in vote intention compared to the June 2022 election and would repeat as the third most voted force in the community, with 15% of the votes, 1.5 points more than in the last regional elections.
The formation would surpass Por Andalucía, which would be the fourth force with 7.8% support, one tenth more than in June 2022. Adelante Andalucía would be the fifth most voted candidacy and would obtain 6.3% of the votes, 1.7 points more than four years ago, which would give it between two and three seats.
Moreno is the best-rated candidate and Montero the best known
The level of knowledge of Andalusian leaders shows a clear difference between public recognition and citizen assessment. María Jesús Montero is the best-known candidate, with 88.9% recognition, but her average score remains at 3.74 out of 10, the lowest among the main contenders.
Juanma Moreno, on the other hand, combines a high level of recognition with a clearly superior assessment. The Andalusian president achieves 94.9% recognition and obtains an average score of 5.46, positioning him as one of the best-placed leaders in terms of public image.
Also noteworthy is José Antonio García, candidate for Adelante Andalucía, who achieves the best score in the panel, with 5.56. However, his main problem is low recognition: only 15.4% of those surveyed claim to know him, which limits his ability to convert that positive assessment into electoral impact.
Antonio Maíllo, from Por Andalucía, presents an intermediate profile: he is known by 56% of those surveyed and obtains an assessment of 4.83. Manuel Gavira, Vox's candidate, registers 21.7% recognition and a score of 4.08, below Maíllo, Moreno, and García.
The political reading of the graph is clear: Moreno reaches the final stretch with a double advantage, because he is widely known and maintains an assessment above the rest of the leaders with high recognition. Montero, despite being very recognizable, drags a low score; and the alternative lefts have better-assessed candidates, but with less public penetration.