In the European Union, the news of the ceasefire between the United States and Iran was received with some optimism. But this Wednesday's attacks by Israel on Lebanon have ended up dynamiting that nervous calm. The European Commission has branded the situation a “very serious” escalation, because it considers it to be “an unacceptable threat” for the stability of the region.
It has been the community spokesperson, Anouar El Annoui, the one in charge of voicing European concern by stating in a press conference that Brussels “firmly condemns the recent attacks launched by Israel against Lebanon”, which would have caused damage to civilian infrastructure.
The president of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, moved hours after the start of the bombings to ask the community Executive to suspend the association agreement with Jerusalem, in order to adopt a firm position against the actions of the Government of Benjamin Netanyahu. An option that in Brussels they do not rule out and about which they assure that “remains on the table”. “We have been firm by activating the tools we have available. There are instruments in terms of diplomatic activity that must be used”, they state.
For her part, the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas, has warned that the attacks perpetrated by Israel after the announcement of the ceasefire constitute a “massive destruction”. Europeans want the truce to be extended to Lebanon, considering that, otherwise, the country would be subjected to a “strong pressure”.
“Israeli attacks killed hundreds of people last night, which makes it difficult to argue that such forceful actions fall within legitimate self-defense. Israel's actions are putting strong pressure on the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The truce with Iran should extend to Lebanon”, Kallas has expressed on social media.
Europe reopens the debate on the association agreement
The community spokesperson, Paula Pinho, has confirmed that, “given the geopolitical situation”, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has decided to dedicate Monday's meeting of the College of Commissioners “to discuss the situation in the Middle East and its broader impact on Europe”. In this way, the orientation debate between the EU and China, which was scheduled for that date, is relegated to a future meeting.
The truth is that the College of Commissioners, the equivalent of the Council of Ministers at European level, gave the green light in September to the suspension of the association agreement with Israel in response to the war in Gaza. One of the measures that various delegations had been demanding in the European Parliament and that was announced by the president, Ursula von der Leyen, during the Debate on the State of the Union (SOTEU). The Commission went so far as to propose suspending the sending of funds and re-imposing tariffs on the country, without breaking commercial ties. This plan must go through the European Council to gather its support. A proposal that, due to the cessation of attacks, remained in a kind of “stand by” among the co-legislators.
What does this decision imply?
In commercial matters, the Hebrew country is the 31st partner of the Union, or what is the same: it represents almost the 0.8% of the total trade in goods of the EU in the world, in figures from last year. Thus, Israel was until now the third largest trading partner of the EU in the Mediterranean region, only behind Morocco and Algeria.
On the other hand, currently, the Union is the largest trading partner of Israel, coming to represent 32% of total goods trade with the world. In percentages, Israel's imports from the EU amount to 34.2% and exports to the Union were 28.8%.
Both powers base their commercial relationship on the principle of a free trade area, which is included in the Association Agreement that will now be suspended and which entered into force in the year 2000, after being signed in 1995.
At the time, the main objective of the agreement was to foster the harmonious development of economic relations, stimulate regional cooperation for economic and political stability, and support cooperation in areas of common interest. The collaboration between the two went further when in 2008 negotiations were concluded to open additional agricultural trade between the EU and Israel.
While it is true, those goods from Israeli settlements were excluded from the Association Agreement. This differentiation between products originating from Israel and the settlements is guaranteed by a "Technical Arrangement" between the customs authorities of the EU and Israel, which has been in force since 2004.
Furthermore, through the European Neighbourhood Policy, the EU provided political and financial assistance to Israel. More specifically, European funds were used for twinning projects in the areas of education, telecommunications and water management.
Legal arguments
There is a point within the Association Agreement that justifies the suspension that is now being debated again. Respect for human rights is an essential element of the agreement, as established in article 2. Through it, the continuation and validity of the document are conditioned on the effective respect for human rights and democratic principles.
“By killing, causing serious physical or mental harm, deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part, and imposing measures intended to prevent births, Israeli authorities and forces committed four of the five genocidal acts defined in the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide”, declared the UN during the Gaza war.
Therefore, based on the violation of the so-called clauses of “essential elements” of the association agreement, the EU can take the step of partially suspending the relationship. Likewise, Article 82 stipulates that “each of the Parties may denounce the Agreement by notifying the other Party”.
The Commission is the holder of the commercial competencies of the Twenty-Seven, as was demonstrated in the tariff negotiation with the United States, which is why it can suspend the parts related to this area of the agreement with the endorsement of the majority within the College of Commissioners.
The future of energy
With pressure still on the table to mitigate the effects of rising energy costs, Brussels rejects Iran's proposal, which advocates a toll for those ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. El Annoui has ruled this Thursday that navigation “must be free” so that it can be fully assured, because the route, “like any other maritime route, is a public good for all humanity”.
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The ceasefire relieves the pressure and gives margin to Brussels to recalibrate its energy strategy
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At the White House, they are not entirely closed to the proposal to reinforce the presence in the strait. The American president, Donald Trump, went on to state that his country “will collaborate to decongest traffic in the Strait of Hormuz” with proposals with which he assures that “a lot of money” will be made.
“We will load all kinds of supplies and simply be around to make sure everything goes well”, affirmed the Republican, who later, in statements to the ABC network, described the possible establishment of a toll as “a joint venture” with Tehran.