Hungary halts the European "illiberal" turn and lets fall the "submarine of Russia", sixteen years later

It was the scenario many dreamed of in Brussels and the forecasts ended up being fulfilled. Hungarian opposition leader Péter Magyar has managed to break down a barrier that seemed insurmountable in Hungary: winning the elections against the ultraconservative government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who with his “illiberal” strategy has become one of the main headaches for community institutions. And all this, in a historic election in which almost 80% of the electorate participated. 

Hungary was heading this Sunday towards elections that could be transcendental not only for the future of the country, but for the very future of the European Union. In Brussels they were aware of this and the polls were looked at with some skepticism. They did not want to sell the skin before hunting the bear, but diplomats, officials, and politicians, in private, said they would sign off on the results that the polls predicted and that the elections have ended up confirming. The feeling in the community corridors was clear: a turning point could occur after years of tensions with the Budapest Executive.

The opposition leader has managed to prevail in elections of an unprecedented relevance in Budapest. The polls have caused a political shift that could end the ultraconservative government of Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and sends a direct message to Europeans. From the government, the leader has carried out a profound transformation of the country to favor his interests and those of his influence networks in judicial, electoral, and media bodies. A drift that he also tried to export to the Union by blocking key decisions, such as sanctions on Russia or the ninety billion loan to Ukraine.

That is why the eyes of the community bloc were fixed this Sunday on the path that Hungarian citizens decided to take. Reinforce Orbán's power, revalidating his supermajority in the National Assembly, or, on the contrary, support Magyar's European pragmatism. The answer has been a historic participation on a day that was expected to be characterized by the strong polarization that has marked the electoral campaign. The long queues at polling stations and the high media coverage reflected the magnitude of the event.

Early in the morning, the Tisza candidate tried to send a signal of optimism to his electorate, appealing for a “system change in the country”, before which he said no one should be afraid. The truth is that the opposition arrived at the appointment after having flexed its muscles on Friday in some massive demonstrations in favor of political change that spread throughout the country. These protests, held in large and small cities, served to highlight a growing weariness with the government after more than a decade in power.

Magyar has focused his campaign on a direct criticism of what he has called a “mafia state” perpetrated by Orbán, accused by various international organizations and institutions, such as the European Parliament, of capturing the state apparatus and subjecting the Hungarian economy to strong pressure. The opposition candidate's narrative has particularly resonated with urban middle classes and with a youth increasingly critical of the country's institutional drift.

The key to these elections was not only within Hungarian borders. At a time when the international landscape is reconfiguring practically daily, Orbán was one of the main champions of Russia or the United States within the European Union. What the former head of community diplomacy, Josep Borrell, came to define as a “Putin's submarine within the European Union” in a conversation with Demócrata. This support for certain administrations, such as the American one, has been evident in the days leading up to these elections, with the visit of Vice President JD Vance, who accused Brussels of interference in the electoral process.

The prime minister was trying to make it clear that what was at stake when citizens went to the polls was the very direction his nation was taking. "Not only is a government chosen, the destiny of Hungary is chosen," he repeated during his interventions in campaign events. A message that appealed both to national pride and to the fear of a loss of sovereignty vis-à-vis Brussels.

A destiny that Hungary has decided should be led by a former collaborator of Orbán himself. Magyar was part of the prime minister's party, Fidesz, and that has served him to try to warn “from within” of the irregularities that characterized the formation. In just two years he has managed to establish himself as a more pragmatic leader than his rival, proposing to reduce the influence of the leader's inner circle on the judiciary and the media. His profile, less ideological and more technical, has been key to attracting disillusioned voters.

It was not an easy task. Already in 2022 the opposition tried to concentrate under the candidacy of Péter Márki-Zay, who presented a coalition of several parties against the Executive. Despite being ideologically moderate, being supported by both left-wing and right-wing parties gave Orbán a very broad majority in Parliament. Magyar is somewhat different, since he represents a conservative figure while being restrained in social discourses that have to do with issues such as LGTBI rights or immigration, but with a clear openness to reopening diplomacy with Brussels.

Since he came to power in 2010, Viktor Orbán has promoted a profound reconfiguration of the Hungarian political system with the aim of consolidating both his leadership and that of his party. Among the measures included the reduction of the number of deputies in Parliament, which went from 386 to 199, along with a redefinition of electoral constituencies. These changes not only altered parliamentary representation, but also redefined the territorial balance of the vote.

This redesign sought to reinforce the electoral weight of rural areas, where Fidesz has firmer support, compared to urban areas, more populated and with greater support for the opposition. As a result, the system makes it easier for the ruling party to obtain more seats even without being the most voted proportionally at the national level. It is an electoral architecture that numerous analysts consider advantageous.

To these modifications are added other changes that consolidate this structural advantage. The electoral system, of a mixed nature, combines single-member districts with proportional representation, but includes mechanisms that clearly benefit the winner. One of the most relevant is the redistribution of the so-called “surplus votes”, which in practice end up favoring the dominant party. In this way, the opposition not only needs to win at the polls, but to do so with a wide margin —greater than five points— to achieve an effective parliamentary majority. This implicit threshold has been a difficult barrier to overcome for years.

Orbán has strengthened in the last decade his institutional control, placing people he trusts in key institutions such as the Constitutional Court, the Prosecutor's Office, the Central Bank or the electoral bodies. Many of these positions have prolonged mandates, which can extend up to a decade or more. This means that, even in the event of losing an election, Fidesz would retain a notable capacity for influence in decision-making, limiting the room for maneuver of a potential alternative government.

However, the system is designed in such a way that the result garnered by the opposition this Sunday will not facilitate, at first, major in-depth reforms. For these changes, an absolute two-thirds majority is required, which stands at 130 seats. This requirement turns any attempt at deep transformation into a complex and potentially slow process, even with a change of government.

“We are living the final hours of Orbán's power: let's bid them farewell with calm and dignity, and tomorrow let's begin the reunification of the nation”, Magyar stated on social media hours before the count was known. A message that summarizes the spirit of a day that could mark a before and after for both Hungary and the European Union as a whole.