Quick guide to not miss the elections in Denmark and its impossible balances

European socialism faces its first major elections this Tuesday after the latest challenges from US President Donald Trump. The other progressive leader along with Pedro Sánchez in the European Council chamber, the Danish prime minister, Mette Frederiksen, is submitting to early elections following the crisis opened by Greenlandic sovereignty. An event that could serve as a mirror for the twenty-seven when they design their economic and political response plans to the international crisis opened by the conflict in the Middle East. 

A fragmented system and in balance

"Now it's up to you, the voters, to decide what direction Denmark will take in the next four years. And I'm looking forward to it," said the prime minister when announcing the early election. The truth is that the Danish parliamentary system is characterized by its fragmentation not only of parties, but of blocs. Polls predict a tight balance between the left-wing bloc and the right-wing bloc, with the governing coalition still in doubt in a country where coalitions are practically imperative.

The Danish parliament is composed of 179 seats, of which two belong to Greenland and another two to the Faroe Islands, with legislatures lasting four years. Unlike Spain, here the entry threshold is 2% to access the compensation seats. In part, this is the factor that explains the presence of numerous political families in the chamber.

Said threshold largely hinders the fact that a single party reaches the majority of 90 deputies that are needed to achieve a supporting majority. The situation is such that, since 1901, all governments that have succeeded each other in the country have been coalition or minority governments supported externally.

Until the negotiations to form a government in 2022, Danish political jurisprudence had been characterized by alliances of two large blocs: the so-called red, originally associated with the center-left, and the blue bloc, in relation to the center-right. During the last four years, the government has been sustained by a "grand transversal coalition" composed of social democrats, the right-wing Venstre and the moderates, which arrives worn out to the elections, where forecasts place a repeat as "improbable".

Frederiksen seeks to revalidate the leadership

The polls predict a victory for Frederiksen around 21% of the vote, significantly below her 2022 result, but still ahead of any other force. The blocs appear in the polls practically tied in seats. What does this mean? If the estimates are met, negotiations for the formation of the new government would be more complicated than on previous occasions.

The strengthening of the welfare state through new taxes on large fortunes, a hard line on security matters and firmness towards Washington have been the leitmotif of the campaign of the leader who aspires to revalidate for a third term. Specifically, she proposes introducing a wealth tax on personal fortunes exceeding approximately 25 million crowns through a rate of 0.5%. In addition, she has proposed a reform of the retirement age, maintaining the possibility of early retirement for hard jobs, but so that the age increases 0.5 years every five years instead of one year —as the current model establishes—.

“When the richest one percent of the population owns about a quarter of the total net wealth of Danes, it is too unequal. That is why we propose a wealth tax. Denmark has not become a rich and strong society based on inequality,” announced the socialist the same day she called the elections. An idea that the right-wing bloc views with skepticism, while the left shows its support.

Frederiksen aligns herself among the community leaders who advocate for a Europe “more capable of defending itself” within NATO, accelerating the increase in defense spending and the strengthening of capabilities, including the Arctic dimension. In her speeches, she emphasizes that security policy “is and will remain the basis” of Danish policy, with an explicit commitment to continue rearmament and military support for Ukraine.

While it is true, there is an issue that separates the prime minister from her counterpart, Pedro Sánchez. Denmark maintains a restrictive line on immigration that has characterized the Danish social democrats. Their message combines “hard line” on immigration with protection of wages for Danish workers, arguing that more controlled immigration favors cohesion and support for the welfare state. 

An open political board

Beyond the Social Democrats, the left-wing space is also occupied by Pia Olsen's Greens, Mai Villadsen's Red-Green Alliance, the Social Liberal Party led by Martin Lidegaard, and the Green-Progressive Party, whose leadership has changed on several occasions during the last legislature, but remains in the liberal environmentalist space.

For its part, the Liberal Party leads the right-wing bloc, with the Minister of Defense, Troels Lund Poulsen, as candidate for prime minister of the blue side. The Moderates also operate under the mandate of another veteran of Danish politics, the current Minister of Foreign Affairs and former prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen.

Lund Poulsen has focused his strategy on an economic plan that bets on tax benefits, among which is the reduction of a 2% of corporate tax or a limitation of food VAT. In addition, the party trying to lead the right-wing sector proposes lowering the rate for corporations to a 18%.

The dynamic of Copenhagen makes it so that, more than a classic face-to-face, the post-election negotiations are protagonized by several leaders: social democrats and greens on the left; liberals and conservatives on the right, with the moderates as arbitrators.

The campaign of geopolitics 

Snap elections at a time when Denmark was at the center of the geopolitical debate. The Republican leader's threat to take over Greenland's sovereignty and the European rallying around the territory's autonomy boosted the prime minister's popularity, who could pivot towards a new classic left-wing majority.

After the military action on Venezuela and the capture of its president, Nicolás Maduro, Trump had become obsessed with the need to control the Danish island. This peculiar interest unusually activated the community capitals, forcing them to move from diplomatic complacency to offensive mode. At this point, and after the American threat to open a trade war, the President of the Council, António Costa, decided to gather his counterparts to study the next steps.

The European reaction was unanimous: “Greenland is not for sale”, they repeated, while the Americans estimated its purchase at around 700 billion dollars. Now, with calm waters, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has opened up to advise on how to strengthen the relationship with the United States, despite warning that her country will not negotiate the sovereignty of the Arctic island. At Christiansborg Palace, they defend that the lesson learned is clear: when Europe remains united, the results are evident.

Not in vain, global geopolitics will continue to mark the future of the scrutiny. The consequences of the crisis derived from the war in Iran have forced all parties to present their own containment plan. The socialists advocate expanding the scope of the “check for seniors”, while the right advocates subsidizing gasoline.

The elections threaten to serve as a thermometer for the rest of the European leaders who have found themselves in recent months forced to react to the continuous comings and goings of the American president. Budapest will go to the polls next April 12 and Stockholm on September 13.