Vance appears as one of the best-positioned names to inherit Trump's political movement when the next presidential race arrives. However, the president himself would be keeping the comparison open with other potential contenders, especially with Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
Trump has not broken with Vance. On the contrary, he has involved him in relevant decisions, given him public visibility, and uses him as one of his most combative voices against his political adversaries. But, according to the article, he also subjects him to constant evaluation, a usual practice in Trump's political style, which usually measures the strength of his collaborators through comments, questions, and comparisons before third parties.
The question Trump asks about JD Vance
According to The New York Times, Trump has posed a direct question about his vice president in private conversations: if JD Vance "has what it takes to go all the way."
The president, according to that information, does not always respond affirmatively. His doubts focus on several elements: Vance's electoral capacity without his endorsement, his performance in some foreign policy episodes, and his ability to become something more than a loyal vice president.
The relationship between the two remains functional and politically useful. Vance is a strong figure within Trumpism, connects with an important segment of the young conservative electorate, and has taken on an attacking role against Democrats and critical media. But the big unknown is whether that is enough to make him Trump's natural heir.
Vance, the logical but not definitive favorite
JD Vance starts with an evident advantage: he is Trump's vice president and, therefore, the most visible name within the administration. In American politics, holding the vice presidency usually offers a privileged platform for a future presidential candidacy.
But Trumpism does not work solely on institutional hierarchies. It works on loyalty, instinct, political spectacle, and direct connection with the base. And that is where Trump seems to keep the doubt open.
The president values Vance's political aggressiveness, his ability to defend the Government's agenda, and his willingness to fight his critics. However, he would also be measuring whether he has enough charisma, electoral resilience, and political autonomy to lead the MAGA movement when Trump is no longer on the ballot.
Marco Rubio enters the comparison
The comparison with Marco Rubio is one of the most sensitive points of the Republican succession. Rubio, current Secretary of State, also appears as a figure with national projection and accumulated political experience.
Trump has at different times fueled the idea of a competition or even a possible tandem between Vance and Rubio. That comparison places the vice president in an uncomfortable situation: he remains the logical heir, but not necessarily the anointed heir.
Rubio offers a different profile within the Republican Party. He has more institutional trajectory, international experience, and an image less tied to direct cultural combat than Vance. For some Republican sectors, that could make him a broader alternative; for others, less connected to the emotional core of Trumpism.
Trump and his way of measuring loyalty
The New York Times article fits with a constant of Trump's style: keeping his collaborators in permanent competition. The president often asks, compares, and gauges opinions as a way of measuring strength, loyalty, and political usefulness.
That method may be uncomfortable for Vance, but it does not necessarily mean a break. Trump has done something similar with other allies before publicly backing them again.
The difference is that, in this case, the question affects the future of the Republican Party. It is not just about evaluating a collaborator, but about deciding who can inherit a political machine built around Trump's figure.
Doubts about Vance's electoral capacity
One of the points Trump reportedly discussed with allies is that Vance has not won a major electoral race without his help. His arrival in the Senate for Ohio was heavily marked by Trump's endorsement, which was decisive in consolidating him as the Republican candidate.
That dependence can be seen in two ways. For his defenders, it shows that Vance is the most faithful heir to Trumpism and that he knows how to mobilize the base. For his critics, it raises an uncomfortable question: if Trump is not on the ballot, can Vance generate the same enthusiasm on his own?
That will be one of the keys of 2028. Trump's succession will not be just ideological. It will be emotional, media-driven, and electoral.
Iran, Pakistan, and the weight of foreign policy
According to the article, Trump has also mentioned differences or doubts linked to foreign policy. Vance had initially shown reservations about a war with Iran, a position consistent with his more skeptical profile regarding US military interventions.
That nuance may appeal to a segment of the Republican base, tired of foreign wars, but it may also generate tensions within an administration forced to make tough decisions on the international stage.
The president also reportedly questioned the outcome of a delegation led by Vance in a negotiation over Pakistan that failed to end the conflict. These episodes fuel a broader assessment of whether Vance is prepared to act as a global leader, not just an internal political combatant.
The White House denies serious tensions
The White House has rejected the idea of a real rift between Trump and Vance. The president's circle insists that the vice president remains an important piece of the administration and that Trump values his public role.
Also, Donald Trump Jr. has come out in defense of Vance, highlighting his ability to confront critical media and defend the president's agenda.
That public backing matters. In Trump's politics, public signals can weigh as much as private comments. For now, Vance remains within the circle of trust and retains a privileged position for 2028.
Trump's succession is already moving
Although the 2028 elections are still far off, the battle for the Republican future has already begun. Vance, Rubio, and other party names are moving in a scenario marked by a central question: who can keep Trump's movement united when Trump is no longer a candidate.
The Republican dilemma is profound. The party needs someone capable of retaining the MAGA base, competing in swing states, withstanding media pressure, and projecting presidential leadership.
Vance has a clear institutional advantage. Rubio has experience and a national profile. Other Republicans could try to break through if they perceive that Trump does not explicitly bless any heir. The political conclusion is simple: as long as Trump does not choose a successor, no one will be a successor entirely.
JD Vance may be the natural favorite, but his future candidacy will largely depend on the enthusiasm with which Trump decides to back him. An explicit blessing from the president could make him the candidate to beat. Sustained doubt would open the door to a much more competitive internal battle.